MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security5 November 2026, Thursday · 11:00 TRT (UTC+3)
Ankara's energy plan targets a quarter cut in oil demand by 2040
Energy Minister Bayraktar unveiled the National Energy 2040 vision on 5 November. The plan aims to cut crude consumption from 993,000 to 718,000 barrels a day and bring import dependence of 67–68% below 50% by 2030.
According to Bloomberg HT, reporting at 11:52, the plan envisages 500 billion dollars of investment and 108,000 direct jobs by 2040. It targets an electrification rate of 36% and a 77% share for renewables in installed capacity. The ministry put the energy import bill at roughly 70 billion dollars a year, based on the average of the past four years. Five state companies account for 210 billion dollars of the total, and grid investment for 36 billion dollars.
Figures compiled by Yeşil Haber from the presentation show installed capacity rising from 123,000 MW to 281,000 MW, and wind and solar from 41 GW to 175 GW. Nuclear capacity is to reach 10 GW by 2040, covering about 11% of electricity. Gas demand is expected to slip from 59 bcm to 57 bcm; under current policies it would have reached 77 bcm. Electricity demand is set to rise from 365 TWh to 680 TWh.
The plan's near-term item is to expand oil storage at Ceyhan from 11 million to 50 million barrels by 2030. On consumption of 993,000 barrels a day, today's capacity covers roughly 11 days of demand; this is a Talay calculation. The investment items in the two sources may overlap and should not be added together. No interim pathway was published.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The plan seeks to secure supply over the coming decades through electrification, nuclear power and domestic output, yet gas demand falls by only 2 bcm over 15 years. An annual bill of roughly 70 billion dollars will keep pressing on reserves this winter. Talay's reading is that the item with the fastest impact is the storage expansion at Ceyhan.
Likely effects
- Energy import billUncertain6 months+
Because the targeted 27.7% fall in oil demand is spread to 2040, its near-term contribution to the bill stays limited.
- Public investmentNegative1–6 months
The 210-billion-dollar share of five state companies creates a new financing burden on the budget and external borrowing.
- Supply securityPositive6 months+
Raising Ceyhan storage to 50 million barrels lengthens the buffer in the event of a Gulf or Black Sea disruption.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Gradual rollout, delayed impact60%
Grid and renewables tenders begin, but progress towards the 2030 dependence threshold is slow.
Watch: Investment allocations for TEİAŞ, BOTAŞ and TPAO in the 2027 budget
- 2Financing bottleneck25%
Reserve pressure and borrowing costs force state companies to defer investment, and the timetable slips.
Watch: External borrowing announcements by state companies and the CDS trend
- 3Rapid domestic output15%
Gas and oil production rise faster than expected, pushing dependence below 60% before 2030.
Watch: Production announcements from the Sakarya gas field
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Oil demand 2040▲ −27.7%
- Import dependence 2030▲ <50%
- Ceyhan storage 2030▲ 50m barrels