MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence27 October 2026, Tuesday
Aselsan's order backlog passes $30 billion for the first time
Aselsan's nine-month results, released on 27 October, show the order backlog topping 30 billion dollars for the first time at the end of September. The company signed 14 billion dollars of new contracts in January-September, of which 1.9 billion dollars were exports.
According to a 28 October report in Hürriyet Daily News, Aselsan's revenue for the first nine months of 2026 rose 28% in real terms to 151.5 billion lira. Adjusted EBITDA, or earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, climbed 38% to 40.6 billion lira, and the margin widened by 1.9 points to 26.8%. New export contracts rose 34% year on year to 1.9 billion dollars. On our calculation, about 86% of the 14 billion dollars of new orders came from the domestic market.
The pace only becomes visible against the August figures. Türkiye Gazetesi reported on 4 August that the backlog stood at 23.2 billion dollars at the end of June, with first-half new contracts of 4.9 billion dollars. On those two numbers, the company signed roughly 9.1 billion dollars of new contracts in the third quarter, and the backlog grew by at least 6.8 billion dollars in three months; the calculation is ours. Paraajansi reported on 6 August that General Manager Ahmet Akyol had set a 30 billion dollar backlog as the 2026 target. Türkiye Gazetesi had carried the same expectation as a goal from next year onwards.
With a 30 billion dollar backlog, the bottleneck is no longer orders but deliveries. The company lifted investment in production capacity and technology by 228% to 684 million dollars, and R&D spending by 36% to 1.3 billion dollars. The first phase of the Oğulbey Technology Base came into operation during the period. Akyol's own words capture the balance: "We do not expect orders to exceed our capacity."
Talay assessment
Bottom line
With roughly 86% of new orders coming from home, most of the backlog is being fed by Türkiye's own air defence programme. That ties demand to the budget and makes it as sensitive to the Treasury's payment schedule as to exports. The 684 million dollars of capacity spending is aimed at faster delivery. The most likely path is a backlog that keeps growing while delivery times stretch.
Likely effects
- Defence budgetUncertain6 months+
The weight of domestic orders spreads air defence payments over several years and creates a standing line in the public spending plan.
- Defence exportsUncertain1–6 months
New export contracts of 1.9 billion dollars are growing but remain small in the total; foreign demand competes with domestic deliveries for the same capacity.
- Supply chainPositive1–6 months
Delivery pressure spills into microelectronics and subcontractor capacity; domestic suppliers gain volume and inherit the risk of delays.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Backlog grows, deliveries stretch55%
New contracts outpace revenue and the backlog stays above 30 billion dollars at the end of 2026.
Watch: Aselsan's year-end 2026 backlog and revenue disclosure
- 2Capacity catches up30%
Later phases of Oğulbey come on stream, deliveries accelerate and the backlog-to-revenue ratio starts to fall.
Watch: Opening date of the second phase of the Oğulbey Technology Base
- 3The budget applies the brakes15%
Public spending constraints slow new domestic orders, leaving growth to exports.
Watch: The defence industry support line in the 2027 central government budget
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Order backlog (end-September)▲ > $30bn
- New export contracts (9 months)▲ +34%