LowV Technology Geopolitics & AI29 October 2026, Thursday
Türkiye aims to lift high-tech share of manufacturing exports to 5.5%
High technology's share of manufacturing exports is set to rise from an estimated 4% in 2026 to 5.5% in 2027, according to an AA compilation based on the 2027 Presidential Annual Programme. Including medium-high technology, the combined target is 48.5%.
The AA compilation, carried by Daily Sabah on 29 October, puts the medium-high technology share rising from 40% to 43%, and the combined share from 44% to 48.5%. Manufacturing exports are expected to reach 266.2 billion dollars in 2026 and 276 billion dollars in 2027. The combined share stood at 36.4% in 2021 and had climbed to 43.4% by 2025. The programme names microelectronics, semiconductors, quantum and next-generation communications as priority fields. According to the budget proposal reported by Ekonomist on 22 October, 246.7 billion lira is allocated to the industrial development programme in 2027, and the high-tech share is planned to reach 5.8% by 2029.
The base behind the target is narrow. The same compilation shows high technology accounts for only 0.8% of manufacturing firms, 2.9% of employees and 3.6% of output value. By Talay's calculation, moving from 4% to 5.5% means export value rising from about 10.6 billion dollars to 15.2 billion dollars, an increase of roughly 43% in a single year. Electronics exports, by contrast, are expected to rise only from 4 billion dollars to 4.5 billion dollars. Automotive carries most of the weight in the medium-high category, with exports targeted to grow from 41.6 billion dollars to 45.5 billion dollars. The share of defence and aerospace within the high-tech category could not be verified, because the sources do not break it out.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Most of the target will come from medium-high technology, which in practice means automotive, while the high-tech category has to grow by about 43% in a year. The 0.5 billion dollar rise in electronics does not explain that jump, so the target's realism appears to hinge on defence and aerospace exports. Semiconductors and quantum appear in the programme as fields, but with no amounts or timetable.
Likely effects
- Automotive exportsUncertain1–6 months
Automotive is the main driver of the medium-high target; growth from 41.6 billion dollars to 45.5 billion dollars depends on demand in the EU market.
- Defence industryPositive1–6 months
Defence and aerospace exports are the most likely source of any jump in the high-tech share, but this cannot be measured until disaggregated data are published.
- Technology lendingNegativeWeeks
Under the programme, these sectors' share of total loans rises from 6.9% to 7.6%; a 0.7-point increase is a narrow expansion of financing.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Combined target comes within reach55%
Automotive and defence exports carry the combined share into the 46–48% band, while the high-tech share stays below 5.5%.
Watch: Manufacturing export shares by technology intensity in the monthly foreign trade data
- 2Target is exceeded25%
Deliveries under defence contracts accelerate and the high-tech share passes 5.5%.
Watch: Announcements on 2027 defence and aerospace exports
- 3Target slips20%
Automotive exports fall behind the 45.5 billion dollar goal, and the medium-high share stays below 43%.
Watch: Monthly automotive exports through 2027 against the 41.6 billion dollar annual pace
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- High-tech share target▲ 4% → 5.5%
- Combined (high + medium-high)▲ 44% → 48.5%
- Electronics export target▲ $4.5bn