LowI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints29 October 2026, Thursday
Türkiye and Uzbekistan widen the scope of their preferential trade deal
Five instruments were signed in Ankara after talks between Erdoğan and Mirziyoyev on 29 October, including a protocol that widens the preferential trade agreement. Bilateral trade reached 3.1 billion dollars in 2025; the leaders are aiming for 5 billion dollars.
According to Hürriyet Daily News, the five instruments signed on 29 October comprise the preferential trade protocol, a high-level business council, a social security agreement and its implementing arrangement, and a border information protocol. The trade protocol was signed by Trade Minister Ömer Bolat and Laziz Kudratov, Uzbekistan's Minister of Investment, Industry and Trade. Anadolu Agency reports that the border protocol will share data on vehicles and goods electronically before they reach the crossing. The aim is to cut customs procedures and waiting times at the gate for both sides. Neither source disclosed which products the protocol covers, so its tariff impact could not be verified.
The figures show contracting outweighing trade. According to AA, Turkish contractors have taken on 333 projects in Uzbekistan worth more than 9.5 billion dollars in total, over three times the 3.1 billion dollars of annual trade in 2025. Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz will chair the Turkish side of the newly created Business and Investment Council. The signatures came on the eve of the 13th summit of the Organization of Turkic States, held in Ankara on 30 October, where Türkiye takes over the rotating chairmanship from Azerbaijan. A day earlier, on 28 October, during a visit by Kazakh President Tokayev, defence industry chief Haluk Görgün said defence cooperation would be expanded, though no contract or amount was announced.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
With the protocol's scope undisclosed, its tariff impact is unknown; the border data protocol, by contrast, promises a concrete and measurable logistics gain. Getting from 3.1 billion dollars to 5 billion dollars looks hard without a wider product list and faster border crossings. Türkiye's weight in Central Asia rests less on trade than on a contracting portfolio of more than 9.5 billion dollars, and the chairmanship will be the tool for institutionalising it.
Likely effects
- Turkish exportersPositive1–6 months
If preferential coverage widens, the tariff advantage in the Uzbek market grows; the gain cannot be measured until the product list is published.
- Road haulagePositive1–6 months
Sharing vehicle and cargo data in advance could cut waiting times at customs gates, the only step among the five instruments that directly lowers costs.
- ContractingPositive6 months+
The 333-project portfolio gains political cover at the level of Cevdet Yılmaz through the new Business and Investment Council.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Gradual growth60%
Trade rises above 3.1 billion dollars in 2026, but the 5 billion dollar goal is spread over several years.
Watch: TurkStat's 2026 annual trade data for Uzbekistan and the protocol's product list in the Official Gazette
- 2Rapid jump25%
Product coverage proves broad and the OTS summit delivers customs facilitation decisions, bringing trade quickly towards the target.
Watch: Customs and transit clauses in the 30 October Ankara Declaration
- 3Stays on paper15%
The protocol is slow to enter into force and trade holds around 3.1 billion dollars.
Watch: The parliamentary ratification timetable for the protocol
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Türkiye–Uzbekistan trade (2025)▲ $3.1bn
- Target trade volume▲ $5bn
- Turkish contractor projects▲ 333 / $9.5bn
Sources
- Anadolu Agency — Minister Bolat says concrete steps taken towards a 5 billion dollar trade target with Uzbekistan
- Hürriyet Daily News — Türkiye, Uzbekistan sign trade and social security deals
- Hürriyet Daily News — Türkiye to host Turkic states in key summit
- Hürriyet Daily News — Türkiye to deepen defense industry ties with Kazakhstan