MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints27 October 2026, Tuesday
European carmakers seek a Made in EU carve-out for Türkiye plants
ACEA, the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, has asked for a targeted exemption for existing investments in Türkiye under the EU's proposed Made in EU rules. ACEA members built 29,000 trucks and 8,500 buses in Türkiye in 2025. A Franco-German position, by contrast, leaves Türkiye outside the automotive framework.
According to a 27 October report in Hürriyet Daily News, ACEA policy and strategy director Maria Linkova-Nijs said manufacturers who invested on the strength of existing rules should not be penalised. She asked negotiators to take account of investments in two countries, Türkiye and Morocco, especially in heavy commercial vehicles. The Franco-German position described in the same report brings the UK into the automotive framework while excluding Türkiye. Cengiz Eroldu, chairman of the Automotive Manufacturers Association, said that position represents only two member states and does not reflect Europe's production networks.
The legal ground for the dispute is the Industrial Accelerator Act, which the Commission proposed on 4 March 2026 to support production in the EU through public procurement and incentives. In a 13 March assessment, Hergüner Bilgen Üçer notes that Articles 8 and 9 of the proposal treat content from countries in a customs union or free trade area with the EU as EU-origin. The same March 2026 assessment says Turkish firms still cannot bid directly in EU public tenders. The two members' position risks carving cars out of this general equivalence rule and tying them to a narrower definition.
OİB data show what is at stake for Türkiye. Forbes Türkiye reports that automotive exports reached 31.145 billion dollars in the first nine months of 2026. Of that, 22.948 billion dollars, or 73.7%, went to the EU. The supplier industry accounted for 12.135 billion dollars, or 39% of the total, over the same period. Eroldu said industry representatives reviewed developments with Trade Minister Ömer Bolat on 19 October. According to a 21 October Hürriyet report, Ankara will step up contacts with Italy and Spain. A European Parliament vote is expected in December, and the process could conclude in April 2027.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
ACEA's intervention shows that Türkiye's strongest ally on autos is not Ankara but the European manufacturers themselves. The Commission proposal treats the customs union as EU origin; the risk is that the Franco-German position carves cars out of that rule. The most likely outcome is a narrow, time-limited exemption for existing investments. Until the rules are settled, Türkiye's appeal for new investment decisions will stay under pressure.
Likely effects
- Türkiye auto exportsNegative6 months+
If the 22.9 billion dollars of exports to the EU count as non-EU in the incentivised segment, the supplier industry in particular faces lost orders.
- New investment decisionsNegative1–6 months
European manufacturers may defer new model and plant decisions in Türkiye until the rules are clear; existing capacity is preserved.
- Bargaining inside the EUPositive1–6 months
Backing from ACEA, Italy and Spain makes it harder for the Franco-German position to prevail on its own in the Council.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Narrow exemption50%
A targeted exemption for existing investments and heavy commercial vehicles enters the text, while new investments fall under the narrow definition.
Watch: A close-partner clause in the European Parliament vote in December
- 2Customs union equivalence holds35%
Articles 8 and 9 of the Commission proposal also apply to cars, and Türkiye counts as EU origin.
Watch: The origin definition for cars in the Council's negotiating position
- 3Türkiye is left out15%
The Franco-German position makes it into the text, and vehicles built in Türkiye count as non-EU in incentivised public procurement.
Watch: A criterion in the automotive package that covers the UK but not Türkiye
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Auto exports to the EU (9 months)▲ $22.9bn
- EU share (9 months)▲ 73.7%
Sources
- Hürriyet Daily News — European automakers urge EU to protect Türkiye investments
- Legal 500 (Hergüner Bilgen Üçer) — EU Industrial Accelerator Act proposal: Turkish goods may qualify as Made in EU
- Forbes Türkiye — Automotive exports reach 3.94 billion dollars in September
- Hürriyet Daily News — Ankara seeks wider talks on 'Made in EU' auto plan