MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints2 November 2026, Monday
UAE says Hormuz bypass has lifted exports back to pre-war levels
UAE Energy Minister Mazrouei told ADIPEC on 2 November that exports had for a time exceeded pre-war levels, but gave no dates or volumes. According to Kpler, exports bottomed at 2.13 million barrels a day in March and reached 3.94 million in June. The Habshan–Fujairah pipeline is capped at 1.5 million barrels a day.
According to The National, Mazrouei said at ADIPEC in Abu Dhabi on 2 November that the UAE had filled the supply gap left by other producers and at times oversupplied those markets. The minister did not disclose when, or by how much, exports exceeded pre-28 February levels; that part could not be verified. Kpler data show UAE crude and condensate exports fell to a record low of 2.13 million barrels a day in March, after the war began on 28 February. In June exports reached 3.94 million barrels a day, the highest monthly level in a year.
The routing constraint is the 1.5 million barrel-a-day ceiling on the Habshan–Fujairah pipeline, the main outlet that bypasses Hormuz. An expansion announced in May aims to double export capacity via Fujairah by 2027. According to World Oil, ADNOC chief executive Sultan al-Jaber said the same day that logistics had risen from under 5% to over 30% of the cost of a barrel.
Exports from Fujairah are not beyond the reach of attack either. According to Middle East Eye, UKMTO reported on 3 November that a tanker had been struck by two projectiles 14 nautical miles north-east of Lima. According to Insurance Business, war premiums for tankers in the region, the extra cover on the hull against war risk, stood at 6–10% of hull value as of 14 October. Before the war the rate was about 0.25%, and barrels leaving through the bypass carry this cost too.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The UAE has closed part of the supply gap through its outlet outside Hormuz, but the pipeline's 1.5 million barrel-a-day ceiling and attacks in the Gulf of Oman cap that capacity. The minister's claim to have surpassed pre-war levels comes without dates or volumes. Until the expansion is completed in 2027, the bypass cannot reach the scale needed to offset a Gulf disruption.
Likely effects
- Supply securityUncertain1–6 months
The bypass pipeline gives Asian buyers a channel independent of Hormuz, but its daily ceiling stays fixed.
- Marine insuranceNegativeWeeks
Continuing attacks in the Gulf of Oman show that the bypass outlet also carries the cost of war premiums.
- Oil pricesUncertainWeeks
Extra UAE volumes could cap the front-month premium; because of the ceiling, the effect would not offset a major Gulf disruption.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1The ceiling stays binding60%
Exports oscillate around the pipeline's capacity and additional volumes remain limited.
Watch: Kpler monthly UAE export data
- 2Hormuz reopens, the pipeline matters less25%
An interim deal reopens the strait and UAE exports return to the main route.
Watch: Daily transit counts through the Strait of Hormuz
- 3The bypass becomes a target15%
Fujairah or the pipeline is attacked, and the outlet outside Hormuz is disrupted.
Watch: UKMTO notices and official UAE statements
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- UAE exports (June)▲ 3.94m b/d
- UAE exports (March low)▼ 2.13m b/d
- Habshan–Fujairah ceiling▲ 1.5m b/d
Sources
- The National — UAE oil exports surpass prewar levels despite Hormuz disruption, energy minister says
- World Oil — ADNOC's Al Jaber: Energy security now measured by delivery, not just production
- Middle East Eye — Tanker hit by two unknown projectiles off Oman, UKMTO says
- Insurance Business — Hormuz sinking hands marine war underwriters another total loss as attacks surge