MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt23 October 2026, Friday
Turkish bank shares slide more than 6% despite a rate cut
The day after the CBRT cut its policy rate to 36% on 22 October, the BIST 100 hit its lowest level since December 2025. The banking index fell more than 6% intraday, even as S&P judged banking risks manageable the same day.
According to Euronews, the BIST 100 fell 2.62% to 10,926.54 points in the first half of 23 October, dipping below 11,000 intraday. Bloomberg HT's live feed reported that the banking index's intraday loss exceeded 6%. The index closed the day down 0.92% at 11,117 points; by Endeks24's calculation, the cumulative loss from 21 to 23 October was 3.97%.
The selling followed the CBRT's 100-basis-point cut, from 37% to 36%. İş Yatırım read a new phrase in the statement, on the size and timing of steps, as a signal that cuts would not proceed automatically, and judged the decision hawkish-looking. MKK data cited by Endeks24 show foreign investors were net sellers of 88.8 million dollars in the week of 12–16 October, bringing three-week outflows to 526.9 million dollars.
A fund scandal is adding to the pressure. The Capital Markets Board (SPK) has allowed an equity maintenance ratio of 20%, rather than the minimum 35%, on margin trades until the close of 30 October, temporarily softening margin calls. Euronews notes that a weekly loss would mark a sixth consecutive losing week for the index, the longest streak since February 2008.
Credit rating agency S&P painted a calmer picture the same day. It reaffirmed Türkiye's BB− rating with a stable outlook and described the fund scandal as a governance and supervision problem, not a threat to financial stability. S&P nonetheless said it is watching banks' capacity to roll over their large external debt, and warned that high real rates could erode asset quality in SME and retail lending.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The market priced the 100-basis-point cut as a cautious one-off rather than the start of an easing cycle. Combined with the fund scandal and margin calls, the bank selloff wiped out the relief the cut was meant to bring. S&P's view that there is no systemic risk supports a floor, but two dates on 30 October will be decisive.
Likely effects
- Bank fundingNegative1–6 months
If foreign outflows persist, the cost of rolling over banks' external debt rises; S&P has explicitly put this channel on its watch list.
- Policy transmissionNegative1–6 months
Credit volumes are contracting under high real rates; if the cut does not feed through to pricing, asset quality in SME and retail lending keeps deteriorating.
- Margin tradingNegativeWeeks
If the 20% flexibility on the equity maintenance ratio expires on 30 October, a wave of forced selling could resume.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Choppy stabilisation55%
The meeting summary shows the path to further cuts is open, and bank shares move sideways near their lows.
Watch: The 30 October MPC summary and weekly foreign equity flows
- 2Selling deepens30%
The margin flexibility ends, fund investigations widen and foreign outflows accelerate.
Watch: The SPK decision on the equity maintenance ratio after 30 October
- 3Quick recovery15%
October inflation comes in below expectations and a December cut gets priced in.
Watch: October CPI data on 3 November
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- BIST 100 (21–23 Oct)▼ −3.97%
- Banking index (21–23 Oct)▼ −5.15%
- Foreign net selling (3 weeks)▼ $526.9mn