MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security25 October 2026, Sunday

Ghalibaf urges Iranians to cut gas use by 10% before winter

Iran's parliament speaker Ghalibaf on 25 October called for a national campaign to cut gas consumption by at least 10% before winter. About 130 million cubic metres a day of processing capacity lost in the war is still offline.

Location: TEHRAN

Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf called for a national campaign to cut natural gas consumption by at least 10% before winter arrives, Iran International and Gulf News reported on 25 October. Ghalibaf said about 100 private companies are taking part in a gas-saving certificate scheme, under which consumers who save gas have their share paid into their bank accounts. He urged 3 bodies, the government, the oil ministry and the National Iranian Gas Company, to speed up the issuance of certificates. According to Gulf News, Ghalibaf described inefficient energy use as 1 structural problem.

A NIAC analysis of 15 October says the National Iranian Gas Company reported that attacks on 4 processing plants wiped out about 230 million cubic metres a day of capacity, and that repairs have restored about 100 million of it. The remaining 130 million cubic metres or so is still offline; the figures rest on an official statement and have not been independently verified. According to MEES, Vice-President Kaempanah said on 20 July that the loss amounted to about 35% of daily sales gas output. Iran International reports that Oil Minister Paknejad put the loss at about 95 million cubic metres in August; the two official figures conflict.

NIAC says Iran's peak winter gas deficit was already between 200 and 250 million cubic metres a day before the war. The same analysis says 3.2 billion litres of liquid fuel were stored for power plants ahead of winter, about 25% more than a year earlier. Iran International on 25 October published 1 video showing drivers in Karaj stopping work over a diesel shortage; the scale of the action could not be verified. According to Iran International, the 25-year pipeline gas contract with Türkiye expired on 29 July and flows continue under a force majeure arrangement. Türkiye imported 4.536 billion cubic metres of Iranian gas in the first half of 2026.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Tehran is trying to close its winter gap by curbing demand rather than raising supply, an indirect admission that repairs are not moving at the planned pace. Even if the 10% savings target is met, a loss of 130 million cubic metres comes on top of a pre-war peak deficit of 200–250 million. The likeliest path is cuts to industry and exports during a cold snap.

Likely effects

Iranian industryNegative1–6 months
As the gas gap widens, Tehran will cut supply to factories, petrochemicals and cement as in past winters, reducing output and export revenue.
TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
The Tabriz–Ankara line, whose contract expired in July, is flowing under force majeure; if Iran prioritises domestic demand, this line could be the first volume cut.
Domestic stabilityNegativeWeeks
If local protests such as the diesel action in Karaj combine with winter gas cuts, domestic pressure rises and the savings campaign becomes harder to keep voluntary.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Curbs start with industry55%
In the first cold snap, gas to industry and power plants is cut, households are prioritised and export volumes fall.
Watch: Industrial curtailment notices from the National Iranian Gas Company and monthly flows to Türkiye
2
Savings and repairs close the gap25%
The certificate scheme and repairs combine with a mild winter, and no serious cuts occur.
Watch: An official statement on the repair timetable for the lost 130 million cubic metres
3
Cuts reach households20%
A harsh winter and fresh attacks lead to cuts in residential gas too, and protests spread.
Watch: Residential gas outages in cities and the spread of drivers' protests

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Savings target▼ ≥ 10%
Processing capacity offline▼ ~130 mn m³/d
Liquid fuel stock for power plants▲ 3.2 bn litres

Bottom line

Likely effects

Possibilities, ranked

Sources