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RegionTürkiye and Its Neighbourhood

MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints26 October 2026, Monday

Libya's vote puts the Crete–Cyprus cable at fresh risk of delay

Greek media report that France is weighing a delay to the Great Sea Interconnector after Libya's parliament ratified its maritime boundary accord with Türkiye. Erdoğan on 26 October demanded respect for the joint will of Türkiye and Libya.

Location: EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN

Türkiye Today, relaying a Ta Nea report on 24 October, says France proposed postponing the Great Sea Interconnector (GSI) that would link Greece to Cyprus; Athens refused to change the timetable. The trigger was the unanimous ratification of the 2019 memorandum by Libya's House of Representatives on 20 October. No official French statement on a postponement could be confirmed as of 26 October. Daily Sabah reports that Türkiye has meanwhile issued a NAVTEX, a navigational warning to mariners, valid until the end of December for a roughly 101-kilometre gas pipeline from Mersin to Kyrenia.

A Greek City Times report of 24 October shows the project already slipping. On 20 October the chairman of the Cyprus Energy Regulatory Authority moved the completion target from January 2030 to January 2031 and said the 1.9 billion euro budget would be exceeded. Nexans, the cable manufacturer, has said production may not restart before 2028. Only 280 kilometres of the roughly 900-kilometre Crete–Cyprus route have been laid. The survey vessel Abeille Marengo reaches Heraklion on 27 October and will wait for the Greek NAVTEX expected in early November.

Greek City Times quotes Foreign Minister Fidan as saying that Ankara would not object to the surveys if it receives written notification setting out the coordinates. Anadolu Agency reports that after the cabinet meeting of 26 October, Erdoğan called on those seeking to exclude Türkiye from the Eastern Mediterranean to respect the joint will of the two countries. He said Türkiye cares only about defending its rights in its maritime jurisdiction areas, and asked the EU for dialogue.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The Libyan vote gives Türkiye's objection along the GSI route a written anchor. France's delay idea is unconfirmed, yet the project has already slid to 2031 because of the Nexans production schedule and the survey permit. The most likely path is fresh friction at sea when Athens issues its NAVTEX in early November, followed by another postponement.

Likely effects

  • Cyprus power supplyNegative6 months+

    Cyprus, still waiting to join the EU grid, stays isolated until January 2031 at the earliest, and the cost will exceed 1.9 billion euros.

  • TürkiyePositive1–6 months

    The Libya memorandum and the NAVTEX for the Mersin–Kyrenia pipeline strengthen Ankara's demand for notification on every project in the Eastern Mediterranean.

  • Greece–FranceNegativeWeeks

    Paris's hesitation becomes a domestic political item in Athens, feeding criticism from inside the government that this is a political defeat.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Fresh friction at sea and delay50%

    Greece issues its NAVTEX, Turkish warships shadow the survey, and work east of Kasos halts again.

    Watch: The Greek NAVTEX for the GSI survey in early November and Türkiye's counter-NAVTEX

  2. 2
    Written notification formula35%

    Nexans or France passes the coordinates to Ankara indirectly, and the survey advances within a limited area.

    Watch: Public confirmation of a notification that meets Fidan's condition

  3. 3
    France postpones formally15%

    Paris suspends the project and Cyprus withholds the first payment of 25 million euros.

    Watch: An official postponement statement from the French government or Meridiam

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • GSI completion target▼ January 2031
  • Cable laid▲ 280 km / ~900 km

Sources

  1. Türkiye Today — France seeks delay in Greek Cypriot power link over Türkiye-Libya deal: Report
  2. Daily Sabah — France reportedly mulls postponing Med grid after Türkiye-Libya deal
  3. Greek City Times — Greece-Cyprus Cable Slips Again as Nexans Eyes 2028 Restart and 2031 Completion
  4. Anadolu Ajansı — Turkish President Erdogan urges respect for Türkiye-Libya 'joint will' in Eastern Mediterranean
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