HighI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints29 September 2026, Tuesday
Washington's Hormuz figures are almost double the ship-tracking data
US Energy Secretary Wright said 13 million barrels a day pass through the strait; Kpler data put the September average at 7.4 million barrels a day. On 29 September Trump claimed that recent days had seen the highest oil outflow in history.
Al Jazeera reported on 28 September that US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said about 13 million barrels of crude oil a day were passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gave a range of 15 to 22 million barrels a day. According to data from ship-tracking firm Kpler, the average flow through the strait in September remains at 7.4 million barrels a day. The normal pre-war flow was about 20 million barrels a day.
An OE Digital report based on preliminary Kpler data said 33.7 million barrels of crude oil had left the strait by 25 September in the week beginning 20 September. The figure for the previous full week was 49.2 million barrels. The same data showed 19 tankers, 17 of them very large crude carriers (VLCCs) able to carry 2 million barrels each. According to Al Jazeera, total Gulf exports rose to 12.8 million barrels a day in September. That is the highest level since the war began on 28 February, but below February's 18.8 million barrels a day.
Anadolu Agency reported on 29 September that Trump said more oil had been taken out of the strait in the past few days than in any period in history. No flow figure supporting the claim was released, and Kpler's weekly data do not bear it out. Because the number of ships transiting with their transponders switched off is unknown, it remains possible that the real flow is above the tracking data.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The gap between official US figures and independent ship tracking leaves the market unsure which data to trust. Kpler data show the flow at less than half its pre-war level, while Washington's high figures may be aimed at calming supply concerns. Because switching off transponders is widespread, both sides may be partly right, but pricing follows the tracking data.
Likely effects
- Oil pricesNegativeWeeks
As the market relies on independent tracking data, optimistic official figures struggle to lower the risk premium; front-month futures stay sensitive to disruption.
- Data reliabilityUncertain1–6 months
The rise in transits with transponders off widens measurement error in every tracking series; both official and commercial figures should be read with caution.
- TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
Because Türkiye's energy bill is tied to Brent, a persistently low flow keeps pressure on the current account deficit and fuel prices.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Flow stays at half capacity55%
Tracking data stay in a range of 7–10 million barrels a day, and the gap with official figures persists.
Watch: Weekly Hormuz transit counts from Kpler and PortWatch
- 2Gradual opening via the Qatar channel30%
Iran–US talks produce an interim arrangement, and the flow rises markedly in October.
Watch: Qatari mediators announcing the US response
- 3Contraction on new attacks15%
Attacks on ships in the strait increase again, and weekly outflow drops below 30 million barrels.
Watch: UKMTO and IMO incident reports
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Hormuz flow, Sept avg (Kpler)▼ 7.4 million b/d
- Gulf exports, September▲ 12.8 million b/d
- Weekly outflow, 20–25 Sep▼ 33.7 million barrels