HighI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints28 September 2026, Monday
Qatar extends LNG force majeure into early December
According to The National on 28 September, QatarEnergy has extended its force majeure notices to buyers in Asia and Europe through November and into early December. Recipients include Pakistan, Bangladesh, at least 1 Indian buyer and Italy's Edison.
According to a report in The National dated 28 September, QatarEnergy has extended force majeure through November and into early December. Force majeure is a notice of extraordinary circumstances that suspends contractual delivery obligations. The notices went out this week to Pakistan, Bangladesh, at least 1 Indian buyer and Italy's Edison. Edison's deliveries will remain suspended until early December. The Ras Laffan facility has been running at reduced capacity since an attack in March. Last year Hormuz carried roughly one fifth of global LNG supply.
The constraint lies more in transit than in production. According to a gCaptain report on 24 September, at least 4 laden LNG carriers crossed the strait in the past week. Before the war, about 3 LNG cargoes a day passed through. According to the same report, 5 ships transmitted no signal during the crossing. Qatar's energy minister said undamaged sections could return to full capacity within a few weeks of the strait reopening. Both reports say LNG prices in Europe and Asia are at their highest since 2022.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Qatar's notice effectively puts a date on the Hormuz-driven LNG shortfall, which will last at least until early December as northern hemisphere winter demand rises. Dark transits by a limited number of ships do not cut supply entirely, but they are not enough to secure contracted deliveries. The hardest hit are South Asian buyers seeking expensive alternatives on the spot market.
Likely effects
- South Asian energy supplyNegative1–6 months
While contracted deliveries to Pakistan and Bangladesh stay suspended, these countries are forced to buy at spot prices that are the highest since 2022.
- European gas marketNegative1–6 months
With Edison receiving no deliveries until early December, Europe's pre-winter storage and purchasing plans depend more on non-Qatari supply.
- Türkiye's gas importsNegative1–6 months
Persistently high global LNG prices risk indirectly raising the winter bill of spot LNG importers such as Türkiye.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Tight supply all winter60%
Force majeure lasts until early December, dark transits stay limited and LNG prices remain high.
Watch: Whether QatarEnergy issues a new notice covering the period after December
- 2Gradual reopening25%
A diplomatic step in Hormuz lifts transits, and Qatar raises output at undamaged sections within a few weeks.
Watch: Weekly laden LNG transits rising clearly above 4 ships
- 3Extended again15%
A new security incident in the strait leads to force majeure being extended into January or beyond.
Watch: Reports of attacks on LNG carriers in Hormuz
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Force majeure period▼ To early December
- Laden LNG transits, past week▲ At least 4 ships
- Pre-war daily cargoes▼ About 3