MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt29 September 2026, Tuesday
Iran's rial passes 2.5 million to the dollar on the free market
On Iran's free currency market the dollar rose 3.84% to 2.542 million rials on 29 September, touching 2.548 million during the day. The rate had been 2.4 million rials a day earlier.
Anadolu Agency reported on 29 September, citing the Pashizi website that tracks free market rates, that the dollar gained 3.84% in one day to reach 2.542 million rials. The intraday peak was 2.548 million rials. On 28 September the rate was at 2.4 million rials. AA attributed the fall to heavy US sanctions, high inflation, the US–Israeli military operations under way since February and the US naval blockade.
Al Jazeera reported on 29 September that people in Tehran have begun stockpiling food and medicine for fear of renewed conflict. According to the report, lorries that used to cross border gates in a day now wait for days. One apple grower said he had been able to sell only a third of his annual harvest. The current inflation rate could not be verified, as neither source gives it.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The rial's 3.84% daily loss shows that Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal was priced in immediately on the domestic market. As the blockade spills over onto land routes, demand for foreign currency and stockpiling feed each other. This picture suggests Tehran is playing against the clock in the negotiations and that economic pressure is eroding its bargaining power.
Likely effects
- Iran's domestic economyNegativeWeeks
The currency's fall passes quickly into the prices of imported food and medicine; stockpiling deepens inflation and shortages.
- Negotiating balanceUncertain1–6 months
Economic pressure may make Tehran more open to an interim arrangement, but hardening at home could also increase.
- TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
Trade and shuttle trade at the Iranian border shrink because of the currency collapse and the blockade; the economic effect is felt in border provinces.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Depreciation continues60%
Unless a concrete agreement emerges, the rate tests new lows.
Watch: The Pashizi and Bonbast free market rates
- 2Temporary recovery on diplomatic news30%
If a positive signal comes through the Qatar channel, the rate recovers briefly.
Watch: The content of the US response
- 3Official intervention and controls10%
The central bank announces new currency controls and heavy intervention.
Watch: Announcements by the Central Bank of Iran
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- USD/IRR free market▼ 2.542 million
- Daily change▼ +3.84%