MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security8 October 2026, Thursday
Iraq to truck crude through Syria to bypass Hormuz
Youssef Qiblawi, chief executive of the Syrian Petroleum Company, said Iraq had asked Damascus for help exporting crude and that a deal was almost done. The first lorries are expected at the Mediterranean port of Baniyas in mid-October, but the overland route can carry only a small fraction of Iraq's September exports of 2.7 million barrels a day.
Middle East Monitor, citing Bloomberg on 8 October, reported that Iraq had asked Syria for direct help exporting crude and refined products. Syrian Petroleum Company chief executive Youssef Qiblawi said an agreement between the two governments was nearly complete and that he expected the first crude lorries to reach Syria in mid-October. The National's report on 9 October also quotes Qiblawi saying he hopes the first lorries will arrive by mid-October. The Syrian Petroleum Company plans to build storage tanks at Baniyas for Iraqi crude.
Volumes will stay limited. According to Middle East Monitor, about 1,000 lorries carry fuel into Syria every day, each holding at most about 220 barrels; Qiblawi expects a similar or larger number of crude lorries. By our calculation, 1,000 lorries amount to about 220,000 barrels a day. That is roughly 8% of crude exports, which averaged 2.7 million barrels a day in September according to Iraqi government data. The National says about 3.3 million barrels a day left Basra for Hormuz before the war.
The overland route is not new for Iraq. The National says at least 2.1 million tonnes of Iraqi fuel oil have gone to Baniyas by lorry since April. At the end of September Iraq began importing petrol via Syria, with a first cargo of 32,000 tonnes. In early October the Iraqi Oil Tankers Company carried 2 million barrels of crude beyond Hormuz for the first time in decades. Oil makes up at least 90% of Iraq's revenue, so even a small bypass matters for the budget.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The Syrian overland route will not break Iraq's dependence on Hormuz; by our calculation it carries about 8% of September exports at best. Its importance lies in the signal rather than the volume. Baghdad is trying every bypass for the oil that makes up 90% of its revenue and is building a new outlet to the Mediterranean. The likeliest path is the route starting at limited volumes by late October.
Likely effects
- Iraqi budgetPositive1–6 months
Up to 220,000 barrels a day of extra outlet partly offsets lost revenue while Hormuz disruption lasts, but cannot by itself relieve pressure on the dinar.
- Mediterranean crude supplyPositive1–6 months
Iraqi barrels leaving Baniyas create a small but new source of supply for Mediterranean refiners.
- TürkiyeNegative6 months+
If the Syrian route gains ground as Iraq's outlet to the Mediterranean, options running through Türkiye could lose bargaining power.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Limited start60%
The first lorries reach Baniyas between mid and late October, with volumes in a 100,000–220,000 barrel a day band.
Watch: The Syrian Petroleum Company announcing its first crude loading
- 2Delay30%
Problems with the agreement or security push the first shipment into November.
Watch: Whether a tanker loaded with Iraqi crude leaves Baniyas by end-October
- 3Scale-up10%
Lorry numbers rise well above 1,000 and the Baniyas storage tanks come into use.
Watch: An official statement on lorry numbers and Baniyas storage capacity
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Lorry capacity (our estimate)▲ ≈220k b/d
- September crude exports▼ 2.7m b/d
- Pre-war Basra exports▼ 3.3m b/d