HighI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints8 October 2026, Thursday
Hormuz transits fall to a two-month low
Kpler data show 7 commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on 6 October, the lowest count since 23 July. Crude flows through the strait fell 27% in a week to at least 10.1 million barrels a day, but outlets on the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea filled the gap.
According to a Reuters report published by The National, Kpler recorded 7 commodity vessels crossing the strait on Tuesday 6 October. The count rose to 10 on 7 October but stayed below the more than 20 seen on 4–5 October. Kpler's count excludes ships that switch off AIS, the automatic identification system that broadcasts a vessel's position. LSEG data, which cover all ships, show 8 transits on 6 October, 4 inbound and 4 outbound, down from 14 the day before. Five of the 8 were oil tankers and one was the LNG tanker Al Mafyar, loaded at Qatar's Ras Laffan port.
A 6 October note from Kpler analysts says crude moving through the strait fell 27% from the previous week's wartime peak to at least 10.1 million barrels a day. That marks a return to the September average and equals 74% of the pre-war level. Most of the decline came from ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Over the same period, exports from the Gulf of Oman coast and the Red Sea rose to 6.7 million barrels a day. That is more than double the pre-war level and keeps total Middle East crude exports at pre-war volumes.
Reuters says tanker attacks have reached their highest weekly level since the war began; US Navy data cited by Oilprice.com count 12 attacks between 28 September and 2 October. NBC News reports that MarineTraffic measured a daily average below 23 ships in the same week; before the war, about 125 large merchant ships crossed the strait each day.
The daily ship count is noise; the gap between 7 and 23 comes down to measurement method. The signal is that regional exports are holding up through 6.7 million barrels a day of bypass outlets even as traffic through the strait falls. The constraint therefore lies no longer in the strait itself but in the security of the bypass terminals. The tanker that burned off Fujairah on 8 October made that risk concrete.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Traffic through the strait fell to a two-month low, yet regional exports held at pre-war levels because 6.7 million barrels a day never use the strait. The ship count in Hormuz is therefore a weak indicator for prices. The real vulnerability has moved to the bypass terminals. If attacks settle on Fujairah or Red Sea ports, there is no second outlet to fill the gap.
Likely effects
- Oil pricesNegativeWeeks
A 27% weekly drop in crude through the strait has limited price impact while bypass flows continue; if the bypass is disrupted, the same drop becomes a direct loss of supply.
- Freight and insuranceNegativeWeeks
As attacks spread beyond the strait, war risk premiums reach Gulf of Oman and Red Sea loadings, raising the cost of the 6.7 million barrel outlet.
- Türkiye's energy billNegative1–6 months
When Türkiye's Gulf crude and product purchases come via costlier bypass routes, freight inflates the bill even if Brent is unchanged.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Low traffic, exports protected55%
Transits stay at 10–20 a day, and Gulf of Oman and Red Sea outlets keep regional exports at pre-war levels.
Watch: Kpler's weekly Hormuz crude flows and bypass exports (6.7m b/d threshold)
- 2Bypass terminals become targets30%
New attacks on Fujairah or Red Sea terminals cut bypass flows and regional exports fall below pre-war levels.
Watch: UKMTO incident notices around Fujairah and Yanbu
- 3Transits recover15%
US–Iran contacts produce a concrete step and daily transits return above 20 for good.
Watch: LSEG and Kpler daily transit counts above 20 for a full week
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Hormuz transits (Kpler, 6 Oct)▼ 7
- Crude flow via strait (weekly)▼ −27%
- Gulf of Oman + Red Sea exports▲ 6.7m b/d
Historical context
Strait of Hormuz transits, last 6 months
- 109/09 · US and Iran strike tankers in the largest wave of attacks on shipping since the war began
- 213/09 · Panama-flagged tanker El Gaia struck off Oman, two crew members missing
- 314/09 · Ship-tracking data at Hormuz contradict the US Energy Secretary's claim of 10 million barrels a day in flows
- 417/09 · European gas storage enters winter 68.5% full as TTF traded in a 77-79 euro band on 17 September
- 522/09 · Brent falls from 104.82 dollars on 17 September to 100.05 dollars on 22 September as Hormuz transit data conflict
- 622/09 · Iran puts an offer to reopen Hormuz within 7 days on the table; the same day a parliamentary committee approves fines of 20% of cargo for violators
- 722/09 · Trump meets 12 regional countries including Türkiye at the UN, US and Iranian delegations talk for 3 hours; Tehran sets 3 conditions on Hormuz
- 823/09 · Bulk carrier Cape Dao hit by two projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, 1 Indian seafarer killed; IMO counts 83 attacks and 23 deaths since the conflict began
- 923/09 · Iran raises its conditions for reopening Hormuz to 7; according to Kpler, only 3 commodity vessels transited the strait on 22 September
- 1024/09 · 10 commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on 23 September, 9 of them inbound to the Gulf; preliminary data for 22 September revised from 3 to 7 ships
- 1124/09 · Tracked Hormuz transits fell to 9 on 24 September, 8 of them outbound; 23 September revised from 10 to 14, while The National gave 13 for the same day
- 1226/09 · Trump says 29 ships left Hormuz overnight; independent tracking data show single-digit transits, barrel estimates range from 3.7 to 16.4 million
- 1328/09 · More than half of Hormuz transits now happen with transponders off
- 1429/09 · Tankers are hit in Hormuz, yet transits still rise to 17
- 1504/10 · Hormuz tanker attacks turn almost daily, yet transits still rise