HighIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence9 October 2026, Friday

Yemen's government claims Bab el-Mandeb as Houthis say they repelled it

Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Yemen said on 9 October that Bab el-Mandeb had been cleared of the Houthis, and government sources said they controlled the strait and Mayun Island. The Houthi-run Saba agency wrote that the attack had been repelled. Neither side's claims could be independently verified.

Location: BAB EL-MANDEB

Yeni Şafak, citing Anadolu Agency, reported on 9 October that Saudi Ambassador Mohammed Al Jaber wrote on X that Bab el-Mandeb had been cleared of the remnants of Houthi militias. He gave no details or timing of the operation. Asharq Al-Awsat reported the same day that government military sources said they had taken full control of the strait, the Al-Ardi camp, coast guard observation posts and Mayun Island. Yemeni Armed Forces spokesman Colonel Majed al-Nuzaili said 1,729 precision strikes were carried out during the operation. He said 1,370 Houthi fighters were neutralised and 300 military vehicles destroyed.

According to Kurdistan24, a government-aligned military source told AFP on 9 October that a major operation had been launched with Saudi air support, but that "fighting is fierce and progress limited". That contradicts the ambassador's claim of full control. On the Houthi side, the Saba agency wrote that government forces attacked the south of the strait and were pushed back. A Houthi health ministry spokesman said six people were injured in two air strikes on Sanaa. Over the same period, the Houthis claimed to have targeted King Khalid Airport in Riyadh with a ballistic missile.

Claims of mines in the strait are also unverified. ZeroHedge reported that the Saudi-funded Al Arabiya wrote on 9 October that the Houthis had laid numerous mines around Bab el-Mandeb and that Saudi-backed engineering teams were clearing them. The Houthis say the strait is open to normal traffic and that only Saudi- and Israel-linked ships are targets. The Asharq Al-Awsat report makes no mention of mines. None of the government or Houthi casualty figures could be independently verified.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The government and the Saudis say they have taken the strait, yet their own military source concedes progress is limited and the Houthis claim to have repelled the attack. While control of the coastline remains unclear, shipowners' sense of risk will not ease, even if the mine claims remain unverified. The likeliest path is the strait remaining contested amid continued fighting on the coast.

Likely effects

Red Sea transitsNegativeWeeks
Fighting on the coast and unverified reports of mines make lines that have started returning to Suez more cautious and may slow the return.
Saudi exportsPositive1–6 months
If the government genuinely holds the strait, the Houthi threat to Saudi tankers sailing south from Yanbu diminishes.
Tanker insuranceUncertainWeeks
If the mine claims are confirmed, war risk premiums in the southern Red Sea rise quickly; if not, the effect stays limited.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Contested coast55%
Fighting on the coast lasts for weeks and both sides maintain their claims of control.
Watch: Whether independent sources confirm the situation on Mayun Island and at the Ardi camp
2
Government control takes hold30%
Government forces hold the strait's coastline and the Houthis fall back to the Hodeidah line.
Watch: Houthi sources acknowledging a withdrawal from the strait's coast
3
Mine crisis15%
A merchant ship strikes a mine in the strait and transits fall sharply.
Watch: UKMTO issuing a mine warning for Bab el-Mandeb

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Precision strikes (government)▼ 1,729
Houthis neutralised (government)▼ 1,370
Control of the strait▼ disputed

Historical context