LowIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence24 October 2026, Saturday · 22:00 TRT (UTC+3)
Iranian drone hits Komala base in northern Iraq without casualties
The Iranian Kurdish group Komala said its base about 90 kilometres north-east of Erbil was hit by 1 Shahed drone on the night of 24 October. Iran's Mehr agency attributed the operation to the Revolutionary Guards, which did not formally claim it.
According to a Rudaw report of 24 October, Komala said 1 of its bases in the Alana Valley, in the Balisan area, was hit at around 22.00 by an explosive-laden Shahed drone. The group blamed Iran's Revolutionary Guards and said the strike caused material damage but no casualties. An AFP report of 25 October, published in Arab News, said Iran's Mehr agency announced that the Guards' ground forces had struck Komala's headquarters overnight in a drone operation. AFP says the Guards did not formally claim the attack in the first hours. Whether the strike reported by Rudaw and the operation announced by Mehr are the same could not be verified.
The strike is part of a week-long series. Rudaw says at least 2 projectiles fired from Iran landed on Kurdistan Freedom Party positions in the Balisan Valley on Wednesday, and 2 drones hit the base of another Komala faction last week; no casualties were reported in either. According to Rudaw, Iran and pro-Iranian groups have fired more than 1,000 drones and missiles at the Kurdistan Region since 28 February. AFP says the deadliest recent attack killed 9 Komala members near Sulaymaniyah on 17 July.
Rudaw reports that Iran's ambassador in Baghdad claimed last Tuesday that the 2 countries had agreed to remove opposition groups from the Kurdistan Region or hand them over to Iran. An Iraqi official who attended the meeting denied any such agreement. A security agreement signed in March 2023 requires Baghdad to disarm these groups and move them away from the border.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The strike caused no casualties, but it shows Iran has stepped up pressure on opposition Kurdish groups in northern Iraq to several attacks a week. The argument that Baghdad has failed to implement the 2023 agreement gives Tehran grounds for cross-border operations. The likeliest path is continued low-intensity drone strikes.
Likely effects
- Iraq–Iran relationsNegative1–6 months
The expulsion deal claimed by the ambassador and denied by Baghdad opens a new area of friction between the two capitals.
- Kurdistan RegionNegative1–6 months
More than 1,000 drones and missiles fired since 28 February keep the security premium high for investment and energy projects in the region.
- TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
Instability in northern Iraq adds risk to the Iraq–Türkiye pipeline and to cross-border trade routes.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Low-intensity strikes continue65%
Iran hits bases around Balisan and Sulaymaniyah with several drones a week, and casualties stay limited.
Watch: Strike statements from Rudaw and the Kurdistan Regional Government
- 2Baghdad relocates the groups20%
The Iraqi government moves the groups away from the border and the strikes ease.
Watch: A formal Iraqi government decision on the opposition groups
- 3A deadly strike15%
An attack causes fatalities as in July, and Erbil and Baghdad react sharply.
Watch: A Komala or PAK statement reporting deaths
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Fatalities▲ 0
- Drones and missiles fired (since Feb)▼ > 1,000