MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security8 October 2026, Thursday
Kazakhstan's big producers study a trans-Caspian export route
The eight partners in the Tengiz and Kashagan fields have launched a feasibility study for a 35 million tonne a year route carrying crude from Aktau to Baku and on into the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline. Results go to the partners in November. The CPC pipeline, which carries four-fifths of exports, came back from scheduled maintenance on 6 October.
According to an 8 October analysis by The Times of Central Asia, a working group of the eight Tengiz and Kashagan partners has commissioned a feasibility study. It examines moving crude from Atyrau to Aktau, across the Caspian to Baku and into the BTC (Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan) pipeline. The options are a subsea pipeline or a much larger tanker fleet, each carrying at most 35 million tonnes a year. Results will be presented to the partners in November. The idea rests on Tokayev's July 2022 instruction making the trans-Caspian route a priority.
The figures make the dependence plain. The same analysis says Kazakhstan exported 78.7 million tonnes of oil in 2025, of which 64.8 million tonnes went through the CPC (Caspian Pipeline Consortium) line to the sea at Novorossiysk. Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said disruptions in January, June and July cost about 3.5 million tonnes. The 2026 output target has been cut from 98 million to 96 million tonnes. The volume that can be diverted to rail or ports at short notice is about 100,000 tonnes a month, less than a single day of Tengiz output.
The CPC line is running for now. Qazinform reported on 8 October that the consortium completed a 12-hour scheduled shutdown on the Tengiz–Novorossiysk line, which restarted on 6 October. A valve was replaced at the Atyrau pumping station and the SCADA (remote monitoring and control) system at the marine terminal is being upgraded. The same report says a drone incident near the terminal on 8 September halted loading at the SPM-2 and SPM-3 buoys. By our calculation, a 35 million tonne Caspian route could cover about 54% of the volume that passed through CPC in 2025. It would not replace CPC, but it would shorten any outage.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The feasibility results due in November will show whether Kazakhstan turns its wish to reduce dependence on CPC into investment. Even a 35 million tonne route would carry only about half of CPC volumes and take years to build. In the near term Kazakh oil stays exposed to war risk in the Black Sea. The likeliest path is a positive study with the investment decision slipping into 2027.
Likely effects
- Kazakh outputNegativeWeeks
Each new attack on the CPC terminal turns into production cuts at Tengiz within days; alternative capacity is capped at 100,000 tonnes a month.
- TürkiyePositive6 months+
If the trans-Caspian route goes ahead, BTC loadings at Ceyhan rise and Türkiye's role as an energy corridor strengthens.
- RussiaUncertain6 months+
Every tonne diverted from CPC reduces Russia's de facto leverage over Kazakh exports.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Positive study, late decision55%
The November study finds the route viable and the investment decision slips into 2027.
Watch: The feasibility results presented to the partners in November
- 2Quick move with tankers30%
The partners opt to expand the Caspian tanker fleet rather than build a pipeline, and BTC volumes rise in 2027.
Watch: A new tanker order announced by KazMunayGas or SOCAR
- 3Shelved15%
Calm persists at CPC and the project is put on hold on cost grounds.
Watch: No new attack on the CPC terminal through end-November
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Caspian route capacity▲ 35m t/yr
- Via CPC (2025)▼ 64.8m t
- Disruption losses (2026)▼ ≈3.5m t