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TALAYINSIGHT
RegionTürkiye and Its Neighbourhood

HighIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt26 October 2026, Monday

Central bank lifts corporate bond repayments out of the credit growth cap

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) has exempted lira loans extended to repay private sector lira bonds maturing before the end of the year from its credit growth cap. The same evening, the capital markets board SPK suspended the activities of Tera and Pusula, the portfolio firms at the centre of the fund crisis.

Location: ANKARA

In a report published on the morning of 26 October, Cumhuriyet said the central bank had sent banks a letter creating a new exemption. Lira loans opened to repay lira debt instruments issued domestically by the non-bank private sector, where the redemption falls before year-end, will not count towards the commercial credit growth cap. The bank gave macrofinancial stability and liquidity management as its reasons. Hürriyet Daily News reports that Minister Şimşek put the private sector bond market at roughly 1 trillion lira on 20 October, with 26.5 billion lira maturing before the end of the year.

Bloomberg HT, in a story filed at 21.40 on 26 October, reported that the SPK had temporarily suspended the capital market activities of Tera Portföy and Pusula Portföy. Tera funds that escaped liquidation under the decisions of 17 September will be wound up by İş Bankası, and the Pusula funds by Ziraat Bankası. Daily Sabah reports that the SPK on the same day raised the financial asset threshold for professional client status from 10 million lira to 50 million lira. According to Hürriyet Daily News, the minimum trading volume threshold rose from 5 million lira to 25 million lira.

Hürriyet Daily News reports that the fund crisis has hit 455,000 investors and that the SPK decided in September to liquidate 131 funds holding more than 900 billion lira in total assets. The two decisions touch one problem from opposite ends. The SPK is deepening liquidation on the fund side at 2 firms, while the CBRT holds the bank door ajar for companies that may struggle to roll their bonds. No figure for how much room the exemption will open up in credit growth had been published as of 26 October.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The CBRT is steering the next link in the fund crisis, the difficulty of rolling corporate bonds, towards bank credit for the 26.5 billion lira of maturities due at year-end. The exemption is narrow and time-limited, designed to break a liquidity squeeze without breaking the tight policy stance. The SPK's intervention at 2 more firms on the same day shows the clean-up is still running and that fresh losses may yet surface on the fund side.

Likely effects

  • Corporate bondsPositiveWeeks

    The option to roll 26.5 billion lira of redemptions due by year-end through a bank reduces default risk in the near term.

  • BanksUncertain1–6 months

    Loans placed outside the growth cap move corporate bond risk onto bank balance sheets, and weaker-rated issuers may still be left outside.

  • Fund investorsNegative1–6 months

    Tera and Pusula funds entering liquidation as well may stretch the repayment timetable in a crisis affecting 455,000 investors.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    The narrow exemption suffices55%

    Year-end redemptions are rolled with bank credit and default headlines in the bond market stay limited.

    Watch: November–December corporate bond issuance and redemption data, and default disclosures on the KAP platform

  2. 2
    The exemption is widened30%

    The squeeze spreads to 2027 maturities and the CBRT extends either the duration or the scope of the exemption.

    Watch: A new macroprudential letter from the CBRT to the banks

  3. 3
    A wave of defaults15%

    Weaker-rated issuers fail to find bank funding and payments slip on several bonds.

    Watch: Notifications of payment delays on private sector bonds

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • Bond redemptions to year-end▲ 26.5 billion lira
  • Professional client threshold▲ 50 million lira

Sources

  1. Cumhuriyet — CBRT decision on the credit growth cap, in force until the end of the year
  2. Hürriyet Daily News — Central Bank moves to support corporate bond market liquidity
  3. Bloomberg HT — SPK temporarily suspends the activities of Tera and Pusula Portföy
  4. Daily Sabah — Türkiye halts market activities of 2 portfolio firms in fund case
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