MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt23 September 2026, Wednesday
OECD cuts Türkiye's 2026 growth forecast from 3.1% to 2.7% and raises its inflation forecast by 3.1 points to 31.5%
The OECD's Interim Economic Outlook, published on 23 September, lowered Türkiye's 2026 growth forecast by 0.4 points and its 2027 forecast by 0.2 points. The same report raised the 2026 inflation forecast to 31.5% and the 2027 forecast to 24.7%, citing higher energy and fertiliser prices driven by the Iran war.
In its Interim Economic Outlook published on 23 September 2026, the OECD cut its 2026 growth forecast for Türkiye from 3.1% in June to 2.7%. The 2027 forecast was also lowered, from 3.8% to 3.6%. According to Hürriyet Daily News, the Turkish economy grew by 3.7% in 2025, and growth slowed to 2.3% in the second quarter of 2026. Türkiye Today reported that 2.7% would be the lowest growth rate since 2020 and that the OECD attributed the revision to the economic effects of the Iran war and to rising energy and fertiliser prices.
On inflation, the revision runs in the opposite direction. The OECD raised its 2026 headline inflation forecast for Türkiye by 3.1 points from June to 31.5%, and its 2027 forecast by 6.4 points to 24.7%. This means that year-end inflation above 30% is now also accepted as the baseline scenario by international institutions.
In the global picture, the OECD raised its 2026 world growth forecast by 0.1 points to 2.9%, projecting 2.2% for the United States, 1.0% for the euro area and 4.5% for China. The sharpest revision in the region is for Saudi Arabia: owing to lower post-war oil output, the forecast was cut by 5 points to −1.8%. The OECD noted that large oil stocks, additional supply from outside the Gulf and government support measures partly absorbed the shock.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The OECD revision prices the cost of the Iran war for Türkiye through two channels at once: growth falls to 2.7% while 2026 inflation rises to 31.5%. This combination indicates that the disinflation programme will proceed both more slowly and at greater cost. The most likely path is for the CBRT to hold its 37% policy rate for an extended period and for growth to stay below 3%; the direction of energy prices is the decisive variable.
Likely effects
- Growth and employmentNegative1–6 months
Growth of 2.7% would be the lowest rate since 2020; with growth already down to 2.3% in the second quarter, energy and fertiliser costs will keep weighing on industry and agriculture.
- Inflation expectationsNegative6 months+
Raising the 2027 forecast by a full 6.4 points to 24.7% implies the disinflation path has slipped by a year, making it harder to anchor market and household expectations.
- Monetary policyUncertain1–6 months
Rising inflation forecasts amid weakening growth narrow the CBRT's room for rate cuts and extend the duration of its tight stance.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Slow growth, sticky inflation60%
Energy prices stay high, growth lands in a 2.5–3% band and inflation ends the year above 30%.
Watch: TurkStat's September CPI data and the path of Brent futures
- 2Energy relief25%
Oil eases as Strait of Hormuz transits normalise, and inflation forecasts are revised down.
Watch: Daily Strait of Hormuz transit counts and the outcome of US–Iran talks
- 3Deeper slowdown15%
Currency and energy shocks combine, and growth falls below 2%.
Watch: TurkStat's third-quarter GDP data
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- 2026 growth forecast▼ 2.7% (prev. 3.1%)
- 2026 inflation forecast▲ 31.5% (+3.1 pts)
- 2027 inflation forecast▲ 24.7% (+6.4 pts)