LowVI Energy Politics & Supply Security6 October 2026, Tuesday
Uzbekistan's gas imports climb to four times its exports
Uzbekistan exported $322.3m of gas in January–August 2026 while importing $1.22bn. Output over the same period fell 16.3% to 24.2 billion cubic metres.
According to The Times of Central Asia, citing official statistics, Uzbekistan's gas exports fell 34.8% year on year to $322.3m in January–August. Gas imports rose 15.2% to $1.22bn over the same period, and imports of liquefied gas, including propane, grew roughly 3.5-fold in value. The country continues to sell gas to China while meeting domestic demand with gas bought from Russia and Turkmenistan.
Asia-Plus reported on 6 October that output fell 16.3% to 24.2 billion cubic metres in January–August. The government is stepping up exploration: five new gas fields have been found since the start of the year, 80 wells had been drilled by early October and 40 more are planned for the fourth quarter. A 4,860-metre well at the Karatau field in Karakalpakstan began commercial flow on 3 October. Upgrading compressor stations is expected to save 125 million cubic metres a year.
The constraint is structural: Soviet-era fields are depleting while population and industrial demand grow. With export commitments via the Central Asia–China pipeline still in place, falling output makes Uzbekistan more dependent on Russian gas. That dependence creates demand that competes directly with plans to carry Turkmen gas across the Caspian to Türkiye and Europe.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Uzbekistan has become a net gas importer, with imports roughly four times exports over eight months. With output down 16.3%, five new fields cannot close the gap in the near term. The result is a stronger Russian gas lever in Central Asia and rising regional demand for Turkmen gas.
Likely effects
- Russia's regional influenceNegative1–6 months
The shift of Uzbek domestic demand to Russian gas gives Moscow pricing and political leverage over Tashkent.
- Turkmen gas and TürkiyeNegative6 months+
As regional demand for Turkmen gas rises, the volumes available for plans to move gas across the Caspian to Türkiye could shrink.
- Gas flows to ChinaUncertain1–6 months
If the Uzbek share of the Central Asia–China pipeline falls, China will turn more to Turkmenistan and Russia.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1The gap widens in winter55%
Winter demand lifts imports, Uzbekistan cuts exports to China further and asks Russia for extra volumes.
Watch: January–October foreign-trade data from Uzbekistan's statistics agency
- 2New fields stabilise output30%
Karatau and the four other fields come on stream in 2027 and the decline narrows to below 10%.
Watch: Uzbekneftegaz's end-2026 output statement
- 3A foreign investment deal15%
Tashkent signs an exploration and production agreement with a major foreign company to raise output.
Watch: Deal announcements from Uzbekistan's energy ministry
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Gas exports (Jan–Aug)▼ −34.8%
- Gas imports (Jan–Aug)▼ $1.22bn
- Gas output (Jan–Aug)▼ −16.3%