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HighIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence25 September 2026, Friday

Ukrainian drones halt Perm, Russia's 7th largest refinery, and Novoshakhtinsk; Moscow claims it downed 592 drones, 2 people killed

On the night of 25 September Ukrainian drones struck the Lukoil-Permnefteorgsintez refinery, around 1,450 km from the border, and the Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Rostov; both facilities halted processing. Russia's Defence Ministry said it had downed 592 drones; one person was killed in Perm and one in Belgorod.

Location: PERM

According to a Reuters report cited by Meduza, the Lukoil-Permnefteorgsintez refinery in Perm halted processing after a fire broke out following the attack on the night of 25 September. By output, the facility is Russia's 7th largest refinery; in 2024 it had an annual crude processing capacity of 12.6 million tonnes and produced 2 million tonnes of petrol and 5.3 million tonnes of diesel. The Kyiv Independent and Kyiv Post give the capacity as 13 million tonnes. According to Rostov Governor Slyusar, the Novoshakhtinsk refinery was damaged and production was temporarily halted; its capacity is 7.5 million tonnes according to the Kyiv Independent, 5.6 million tonnes according to the Kyiv Post, and around 100,000 barrels a day according to The Moscow Times.

The parties diverge on casualty and drone figures. Russia's Defence Ministry claimed it had downed 592 Ukrainian drones overnight over Russian regions, Crimea and the Black Sea; the Ukrainian side did not disclose the number of drones used and the Russian figure could not be independently verified. Ukraine's General Staff, for its part, reported striking 2 refineries, 3 missile production facilities and radar stations, among them the Iskra plant in Ulyanovsk, part of Almaz-Antey. According to Russian officials, 1 person was killed in Perm and 1 in Belgorod; 8 people, including 1 child, were wounded in Ulyanovsk and, according to Meduza, 13 in Voronezh.

The attack comes at a time when Russia's domestic fuel market is already under strain. According to The Moscow Times, the national average petrol price rose to 78.51 roubles per litre as of 14 September, up 21% since the start of the year; odd-even sales by licence plate were introduced in Kaluga, and a limit of 30 litres per vehicle until 1 October in the Leningrad region. Russia has banned petrol exports until 31 January 2027 and diesel exports until the end of October.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The Perm attack shows that Ukraine has extended its deep-strike range to 1,450 km and that the refinery campaign has spread to the Urals. With petrol prices up 21% since the start of the year and regional sales limits back in place, the halt of another 12.6 million tonne facility prolongs Moscow's need to protect the domestic fuel balance with export bans.

Likely effects

  • Russian domestic fuel marketNegativeWeeks

    The simultaneous halt of Perm and Novoshakhtinsk makes new regional sales limits likely for petrol, which reached 78.51 roubles per litre on 14 September.

  • Russian product exportsNegative1–6 months

    With the petrol export ban extended to 31 January 2027 and the diesel ban to the end of October, the likelihood of refinery losses returning to foreign markets as diesel supply is weakened.

  • TürkiyeNegative1–6 months

    The Russian diesel export ban continuing until the end of October and mounting refinery losses could intensify the search for suppliers and price pressure in diesel-importing countries such as Türkiye.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Campaign continues, repair race60%

    Ukraine keeps up refinery strikes at a weekly tempo; Perm partially restarts within a few weeks, but with new strikes nationwide capacity losses remain high.

    Watch: News of the Perm refinery restarting and new regional sales limits

  2. 2
    Energy ceasefire back on the table25%

    Growing fuel shortages make Moscow more open to a proposal to halt reciprocal attacks on energy infrastructure.

    Watch: An official Kremlin statement on halting reciprocal attacks on energy infrastructure

  3. 3
    Rapid recovery15%

    Both refineries return to full capacity within days and regional limits are lifted in October.

    Watch: A fall in the exchange petrol price and the Leningrad limit not being extended on 1 October

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • Perm refinery halted▼ 12.6 Mt/year
  • Russian petrol price (YTD)▲ +21%
  • Russian MoD drone claim▲ 592

Sources

  1. Meduza — Reuters: Russia's seventh-largest refinery halts operations after a Ukrainian drone attack
  2. Meduza — Russia says it intercepted nearly 600 Ukrainian drones overnight as strikes hit refineries and industrial sites
  3. Kyiv Independent — Ukrainian forces reportedly strike oil refinery 1,500 kilometres from border, Russian electronics factory
  4. Kyiv Post — Ukrainian drone wave hits Russian refineries and missile parts factory
  5. The Moscow Times — At least 2 killed as Ukraine strikes industrial sites across Russia
  6. The Moscow Times — Russian regions slowly reimpose fuel purchase limits amid ongoing refinery attacks