Netanyahu's bloc stalls at 54 seats, leaving the Iran decision hanging

According to Central Elections Committee data cited by the Times of Israel, the count reached 76.8% at 10:58 Israel time on 28 October. Netanyahu's bloc stood at 56 seats with 66.2% counted and slipped to 54 as counting progressed. Ynet reported that with 70.7% counted, Likud had 27 seats, Eisenkot's Yashar list 20 and the Joint List 13. Around 600,000 double-envelope ballots, most of them from soldiers, may not be fully counted until Friday.

The exit polls on 27 October did not agree. According to Ynet, Channel 12's updated poll gave Netanyahu's bloc 52 seats and Eisenkot's bloc 49. Updated polls from Kan 11 and Channel 13 showed the two blocs tied at 51. The Times of Israel says turnout of 77.7% was the highest since 1999. Eisenkot said the public had chosen change, while Netanyahu said the Zionist majority must unite; both sides claim they will form the government.

The picture on 28 October bears directly on the Iran decision. The Times of Israel reports that Netanyahu said on 28 October he wants to form a strong right-wing government and remove the existential threat from Iran. The same source says the Wall Street Journal reported that the US told some Gulf states to be ready for a brief, intense operation after the 3 November midterms. Qatari mediators also presented Iran with a new draft to end the war on 28 October, and Tehran is expected to respond by the weekend. The shekel lost about 1% against the dollar on the morning of 28 October, weakening to 3.0843.