MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence26 October 2026, Monday
PKK-linked Sinjar Resistance Units begin handing over their weapons
Iraqi security forces began taking over the positions of the PKK-linked Sinjar Resistance Units (YBŞ) on 26 October. About 2,000 fighters were expected to hand in their weapons at a ceremony on Mount Sinjar.
Hürriyet Daily News reported from Baghdad on 26 October that Iraq's Security Media Cell had announced the start of the handover of YBŞ positions in Sinjar district. The report says about 2,000 fighters were to disarm at the first ceremony, with a further 3,000 to 4,000 expected to follow in later phases. The fighters are to be distributed among the Iraqi army, the police and the Popular Mobilisation Forces, the state-backed paramilitary umbrella. Sabah Numan, military spokesman for Prime Minister Zeydi, tied the step to a policy of bringing all weapons under state control.
Democrata, citing an agency report, says the YBŞ told ANF, an outlet close to the group, that 4,165 of its fighters would join the Iraqi security forces. That figure conflicts with the estimate of 5,000 to 6,000 carried by Hürriyet Daily News. The YBŞ and its women's branch, the YJŞ, made integration conditional on the agreed terms being implemented and on guarantees for the rights of their communities. The same report notes that the process follows the PKK's decision in May to end its armed campaign and the withdrawal of the US-led coalition at the end of September.
According to Hürriyet Daily News, Erdoğan and Zeydi agreed in New York on 23 September to restore full state authority in Sinjar. Turkish forces are to hand the Bashiqa–Zilkan base to the Iraqi federal government in stages, in line with agreed security benchmarks and a timetable. As of 26 October, Ankara had issued no new official statement on the ceremony.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The Sinjar step is the first concrete result on the ground in Ankara's effort to extend its terror-free Türkiye process to PKK-linked structures in Iraq. Distributing the fighters among bodies such as the Popular Mobilisation Forces does not remove the weapons; it changes the chain of command. The most likely path is phased and conditional integration, with the Bashiqa handover advancing in step with that timetable.
Likely effects
- Turkish securityPositive1–6 months
Dissolving a PKK-linked armed structure in Sinjar, close to the Turkish border, could reduce the need for Turkish air operations.
- Iraq's internal balanceUncertain1–6 months
Moving some of the fighters into the Popular Mobilisation Forces sharpens the contradiction in Baghdad's plan to absorb militias into the state.
- Bashiqa baseUncertain1–6 months
The Turkish handover of Bashiqa–Zilkan rests on security benchmarks, and progress in Sinjar could bring that timetable forward.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Phased and conditional integration60%
After the first 2,000, the remaining groups join state forces in stages spread over months.
Watch: Further handover announcements from Iraq's Security Media Cell
- 2The process stalls25%
The YBŞ says the terms have not been met, holds some positions and the handover is left unfinished.
Watch: A statement from the YBŞ or YJŞ alleging that the terms have been breached
- 3Rapid completion15%
All fighters are integrated by the end of the year and the Bashiqa handover is brought forward.
Watch: A joint statement from Ankara and Baghdad on the Bashiqa handover
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Fighters disarming in first phase▲ ~2,000
- Total reported by YBŞ▲ 4,165