HighIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt1 October 2026, Thursday
CBRT net reserves excluding swaps fall below 40 billion dollars
Data published by the CBRT on 1 October show gross reserves fell by 3.2 billion dollars to 171.2 billion dollars in the week to 25 September. The decline extended into a fifth week, and net reserves excluding swaps dropped to 39.9 billion dollars.
Bloomberg HT reported on 1 October that gross reserves fell to a two-month low, while net reserves dropped by 2.5 billion dollars to 53.4 billion dollars. Net reserves excluding swaps strip out foreign currency swaps with banks and show the central bank's real foreign currency strength. This measure fell by 3.2 billion dollars in a week and by 16 billion dollars in a month. According to Dünya, foreign currency assets fell by 1.245 billion dollars to 61.563 billion dollars. Gold reserves fell by 1.957 billion dollars to 109.64 billion dollars.
Ekonomim reported on 2 October that foreign investors sold 409.9 million dollars of government bonds and 434.4 million dollars of private sector debt instruments in the same week. Total bond sales in the two weeks from 18 to 25 September, when the fund crisis began, reached 1.3 billion dollars. In the same week, foreign investors bought 358.6 million dollars of equities. At home, individuals' foreign currency deposits rose by 1.024 billion dollars, bringing the three-week increase to 6.175 billion dollars. The sources did not break down how much of the fall in gold was due to price and how much to sales.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The 16 billion dollar fall in net reserves excluding swaps over a month shows the CBRT is meeting the fund crisis and dollarisation pressure by spending reserves. Foreign exits from bonds and a domestic flight into foreign currency deposits converged in the same week. If the interim payment decision halts the wave of panic, the decline could slow. If it does not, the sub-40 billion dollar level becomes a new sensitivity threshold.
Likely effects
- Exchange rate policyNegative1–6 months
As the reserve buffer thins, the CBRT's capacity to manage the lira narrows. Each new wave of outflows has to be met with fewer reserves.
- DollarisationNegativeWeeks
The 6.175 billion dollar rise in individuals' foreign currency deposits over three weeks shows that confidence in lira assets has weakened alongside the fund crisis.
- Foreign portfolioUncertainWeeks
Foreign investors bought 358.6 million dollars of equities while selling bonds. This suggests the exit reflects debt market concerns more than Türkiye risk.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Decline slows50%
The interim payments and the CBRT's liquidity steps reduce panic, and reserve losses slow in the first weeks of October.
Watch: Reserve data for the week of 2 October, due on 8 October
- 2Decline continues35%
The flight into foreign currency deposits and foreign bond outflows continue, and net reserves excluding swaps fall further.
Watch: Foreign bond flows in the weekly securities statistics
- 3Rapid recovery15%
Foreign inflows return, foreign currency deposits unwind, and reserves start rising again.
Watch: A weekly fall in individuals' foreign currency deposits
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Gross reserves (25 September)▼ $171.2 billion
- Net reserves ex-swaps▼ $39.9 billion
- Net reserves ex-swaps (1 month)▼ −$16 billion
- Foreign bond sales (2 weeks)▼ $1.3 billion