MediumV Technology Geopolitics & AI27 October 2026, Tuesday
Turkish machinery exporters can now get EU certification at home
Türkiye's Trade Ministry announced on 27 October that a declaration confirming the country's alignment with EU machinery safety legislation had been signed. The ministry says machinery exports to the EU, worth more than 10 billion dollars a year, can now obtain conformity certificates from approved bodies inside Türkiye.
According to a 27 October report in Hürriyet Daily News, the Trade Ministry said the declaration fulfils one of the requirements of the customs union. From 27 October, Turkish authorities can designate notified bodies inside Türkiye. These are the independent inspection bodies that certify a product complies with EU safety rules. The ministry says their assessments will be recognised on the same terms as those for manufacturers in the 27 EU member states. Machinery makes up 10% of Türkiye's exports to the EU, and certification costs on more than 10 billion dollars of annual sales are expected to fall markedly.
The technical groundwork was laid ten days earlier. According to the text carried by Alomaliye, the Ministry of Industry and Technology's Machinery Safety Regulation was published in Official Gazette No. 33402 on 16 October 2026 and is based on the EU Machinery Regulation 2023/1230. The regulation treats software as a safety component, and its Article 9 opens the door to additional requirements for high-risk AI systems. The ministry may request source code during conformity checks, and technical files must be kept for at least ten years. Because Hürriyet's 27 October report does not name the legislation, it could not be verified that the declaration is tied directly to this regulation.
Export data set the limits of the gain. Figures released by the Machinery Exporters' Association on 23 October show machinery exports rising only 1.5% to 21.3 billion dollars in the first nine months of 2026, an annualised 28.8 billion dollars. Machinery imports rose 4.6% to 47 billion dollars over the same period. Exports to Germany, the largest market, rose 8.7% to more than 2.5 billion dollars, while sales to the US climbed 27.6% to nearly 1.8 billion dollars.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Domestic certification lowers the cost of more than 10 billion dollars a year in machinery exports to the EU, but nine-month growth of 1.5% shows the problem is demand, not paperwork. The heavier burden lies in Regulation 2023/1230, whose software, source code and AI requirements push compliance costs into engineering as machinery goes digital. The most likely payoff shows up in margins and in staying power within EU supply chains, not in export volumes.
Likely effects
- Machinery exportersPositive1–6 months
Bringing certification home cuts fees paid to foreign bodies and shortens waiting times; the effect shows first among SME-sized exporters.
- Software and automationNegative1–6 months
Treating software as a safety component and requesting source code add cyber security and documentation costs for makers of smart machinery.
- Customs unionPositive6 months+
Completed alignment strengthens Türkiye's argument in the EU's Made in EU debate that it is a partner actively operating the customs union.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Quiet cost gain60%
Domestic notified bodies come on line through 2027; export volumes grow modestly, but certification costs fall.
Watch: The number of new machinery bodies notified from Türkiye in the European Commission's NANDO database
- 2Implementation delay30%
Notification to the EU and accreditation of the bodies drag on, and exporters keep obtaining certificates abroad for a while.
Watch: Updates to the Trade Ministry's list of notified bodies
- 3Export momentum10%
Lower costs coincide with a recovery in German and EU demand, and machinery exports return to double-digit growth.
Watch: Year-on-year change in machinery exports to the EU in MAİB monthly data
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Annual machinery exports to the EU▲ > $10bn
- Machinery exports (9 months, y/y)▲ +1.5%