From Doha, a fading US umbrella leaves the Mashriq on its own

Summary

An Arabic policy brief from the Al Jazeera Centre for Studies, whose English summary was published on 4 October 2026, argues that the Mashriq has entered a period of unprecedented security disorder. The Mashriq is the Arab east stretching from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Gulf. The page does not name the author. According to the text, past crises revolved around regimes, rivalry between neighbours or limited Arab–Israeli wars. Today's crisis combines Israel's war with the Palestinians and regional actors, interstate conflict and a contest for influence, all at once. The brief describes the Houthi seizure of Bab el-Mandeb and their subsequent attacks on Saudi Arabia as both a symptom and the peak of this disorder.

The brief's central thesis is that the crisis must be read alongside the erosion of the American security umbrella. According to the paper, the US joined Israel's campaign against Iran's nuclear facilities in July 2025. In February 2026 it then entered a wider war against Iran without adequately consulting its Arab and Turkish allies. That war did not topple the regime. Instead it spread to the Gulf, Jordan and Iraq, closed Hormuz and reignited the conflict in Yemen. The brief says President Trump's reluctance to pledge help to Saudi Arabia against Houthi attacks has called the reliability of the American alliance into question. It adds that the erosion began with Obama's pivot to Asia, and that China's brokering of the Saudi–Iranian rapprochement in 2023 was a sign of it.

The paper does not see leaning harder on China or Israel as a solution. It argues that Beijing will pursue its own interests and that Israel is itself one of the sources of insecurity. Its proposed starting point is the defence agreement between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye. For that to become a lasting system, however, the relationship with the US must be defined, membership broadened, Iran brought into the regional order and Syria rebuilt. The brief argues that Iran's threats must be contained while its legitimate interests are also recognised.