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Container cranes and a ship at the Port of Djibouti at sunset

I Geo-Economics & ChokepointsSub-Saharan Africa

ISS says scattered intervention feeds Somali piracy and calls for coastal policing

Container terminal at the Port of Djibouti (December 2015)Photo: Skilla1st / Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0 · resized · Source
Institution
Institute for Security Studies (ISS Today)
Author
Willis Okumu, Said Abdullahi
Country · language
Kenya (ISS Nairobi) · English
Affiliation
Independent think tank

Summary

In a 6 November article, ISS Nairobi researchers Willis Okumu and Said Abdullahi write that piracy has returned off the Somali coast. By their count there have been 9 hijackings attributed to local pirates in 2026. The latest was the 29 October attack on the Iranian fishing vessel Azini off Puntland. The Indian navy rescued the crew and the boat, preventing it from being used as a mother ship to board merchant vessels.

The article treats Türkiye's role as a contested case. On 29 August the federal government announced that the Turkish navy had freed the MV Lutuf, killing 14 pirates and destroying 4 skiffs. Puntland, however, alleged that Mogadishu and Ankara had paid a $2.5 million ransom; the authors report the claim without verifying it. According to the authors, the ship was reportedly carrying equipment for Turkish military training in Mogadishu, suggesting the intervention may have been selective. Puntland later freed 3 vessels in its own operation; 5 crew members were killed and 4 wounded.

The authors attribute the resurgence to three causes. The Iran war and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have drawn foreign navies to other theatres, and rerouted ships are passing closer to the coast, many without armed guards. Puntland's security forces are concentrated not on the coast but inland, along the Bosaso–Galkayo corridor. The authors write that Puntland leader Deni, preparing for the May 2027 election, has clashed with the US-trained PSF unit, splitting coastal capacity. The third cause is technology: pirates now use drones, satellite internet and GPS. Their prescription is for the US, Türkiye and the UAE to reconcile Mogadishu and Puntland, and for Puntland and Galmudug to establish a permanent police presence on the coast.

Blind spot

The article does not quantify the cost of piracy: there are no figures for total ransoms, insurance premiums, the resources of Operation Atalanta or the extra burden on rerouted ships. The $2.5 million ransom claim remains unverified. It reports that foreign navies are seen as linked to illegal fishing but does not measure that perception. How the recommendations would be funded, and Galmudug's capacity, go undiscussed.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Somali piracy is returning as a by-product of the Red Sea and Hormuz crises: navies are deployed elsewhere and rerouted ships sail closer to the coast. Nine hijackings in 2026 is a small number, but the rift between the federal government and Puntland looks unlikely to close before the May 2027 election. Türkiye's Lutuf operation has positioned Ankara as a party to Somali domestic politics; the $2.5 million ransom claim shows the political cost of that role.

Likely effects

  • Gulf of Aden freight and insuranceNegativeWeeks

    If ships on near-coast routes continue to sail without armed guards, owners' protection and cover costs against piracy will rise; the article gives no figure for this cost.

  • Türkiye's role in SomaliaNegative1–6 months

    Puntland's $2.5 million ransom claim casts Ankara's closeness to Mogadishu as partisanship; Türkiye's room to mediate in federal–state tensions may narrow.

  • Somali domestic politicsNegative1–6 months

    In the run-up to the May 2027 election, rivalry between Mogadishu and Puntland will keep splitting the limited capacity available for coastal security.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Low-intensity rise continues55%

    Hijackings continue near 2026's pace of 9 cases, foreign navies intervene selectively and no federal–Puntland coordination emerges.

    Watch: New hijacking reports from UKMTO and EUNAVFOR Atalanta off Puntland and Galmudug

  2. 2
    Joint coastal security takes shape25%

    With US, Turkish and UAE backing, Mogadishu and Puntland set up a joint maritime security arrangement and hijackings decline.

    Watch: A maritime security accord or joint operation announced by the federal government and Puntland

  3. 3
    Piracy reaches the main shipping lane20%

    Pirates move from fishing boats to large vessels on the main trade route, adding Gulf of Aden risk to Red Sea risk.

    Watch: A pirate boarding of a large tanker or container ship in the Gulf of Aden

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Original publication: issafrica.org · 11 November 2026

This page summarises the institution's view and does not reflect the view of Talay Insight. No direct quotation is used.