A reading of ASEAN from Beijing: 1.05 trillion dollars in trade presented as the backbone of the shared-future narrative — China Institute of International Studies (CIIS)

Aerial panorama of the Singapore Strait and the Pasir Panjang container terminal — Singapore Strait and Pasir Panjang Port Terminal (2016)Photo: Bob Tan / Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0 · resized · Source

Institution: China Institute of International Studies (CIIS)
Author: Jiang Zhida
Country · language: China · Chinese
Affiliation: Foreign Ministry-affiliated institute

Summary

The article by Jiang Zhida of the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies at CIIS, which is affiliated with China's Foreign Ministry, appeared on China.com on 20 September and was published on the institute's website on 21 September; it was written on the occasion of the 23rd China–ASEAN Expo held in Nanning on 17–21 September. The author notes that all 11 ASEAN members attended the expo and that Timor-Leste took part for the first time as a full member and co-organiser. 2026 marks the 35th year of the dialogue relationship and the 5th year of the comprehensive strategic partnership. The article describes the relationship on 4 pillars: intellectual direction through the shared-future proposal of October 2013 and the five-homes framework of November 2021, economic integration, joint governance in security, and people-to-people exchange.

On the economic pillar, the author stresses that bilateral trade exceeded 1 trillion dollars for the first time in 2025, reaching 1.05 trillion dollars, that China has been ASEAN's largest trading partner for 17 consecutive years, and that the Free Trade Area 3.0 protocol will lift cooperation to the level of rules and standards. On security, he refers to the new decade of the Lancang–Mekong mechanism, joint patrols and cooperation against criminal organisations, and in the military sphere to the Peace and Friendship exercises; he opposes intervention by external powers in the region and bloc confrontation. On people-to-people exchange, he cites Chinese immigration administration data showing that two-way trips exceeded 25,244,000 in the first 8 months of 2025.

Blind spot

What the West misses: the West reads China–ASEAN ties through South China Sea tensions and tariff-driven transshipment, while Beijing narrates them through trade volume and institutional continuity. The weakness of this reading: the article ignores maritime disputes with the Philippines and Vietnam, ASEAN's growing trade deficit with China and the routing of Chinese exports through the region to evade US tariffs; it stays within official discourse.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The article is less an analysis than an official positioning text: 1.05 trillion dollars in trade and 17 years as the top partner point to a real foundation of dependence, but the text leaves out the costs of that dependence on the ASEAN side, namely the trade deficit and maritime disputes. Beijing's priority in the coming period should be read as binding ASEAN to itself at the level of rules through Free Trade Area 3.0 in the face of US tariffs.

Likely effects

Regional trade flowsUncertain1–6 months
Implementation of the Free Trade Area 3.0 protocol deepens the supply chain between China and ASEAN in digital and green trade as well, increasing the region's economic dependence on China.
US tariffs and transshipmentNegative1–6 months
As integration between China and ASEAN grows, Washington's origin checks and tariff pressure on Chinese goods routed through the region may feed through to ASEAN economies.
South China SeaNegative6 months+
The article's security narrative opposing external powers makes divisions within ASEAN more visible at a time when the Philippines continues military cooperation with the United States.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Economic deepening, security divergence60%
Trade and implementation of Free Trade Area 3.0 advance, but the South China Sea code of conduct negotiations remain inconclusive.
Watch: The timetable of the next round of South China Sea code of conduct negotiations and ratifications bringing the 3.0 protocol into force
2
US tariff pressure intensifies25%
Washington forces ASEAN countries to slow integration with China through new rules of origin or tariffs targeting transshipment trade.
Watch: A new US transshipment tariff decision on exports from Vietnam, Malaysia or Thailand
3
Escalation of maritime tension15%
A maritime incident between the Philippines and China deepens divisions within ASEAN and overshadows the economic agenda.
Watch: Reports of Chinese coast guard intervention at Second Thomas Shoal or Scarborough Shoal

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Original publication: ciis.org.cn · 21 September 2026

This page summarises the institution's view and does not reflect the view of Talay Insight. No direct quotation is used.