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TALAYINSIGHT
The Suez Canal and surrounding desert and farmland seen from space

III Kinetic Conflicts & DefenceMiddle East and North Africa

An emptying hall does not close the West's credibility gap on Israel

Suez Canal, Egypt — seen from the ISS (March 2016)Photo: NASA / Tim Kopra (ISS Expedition 46) · Public domain · Source
Institution
EDAM (Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies)
Author
Tacan İldem
Country · language
Türkiye · Turkish (English translation)
Affiliation
Independent think tank (Istanbul)

Summary

In a piece published by Istanbul-based EDAM on 28 September 2026, retired ambassador and EDAM chairman Tacan İldem starts from Netanyahu's address to the UN General Assembly on 24 September. It is the English translation of a column that appeared in Turkish in T24 the same day. İldem notes that dozens of delegations walked out, yet no Western country joined them apart from Spain and Ireland, and even those 2 left a diplomat behind to take notes. His central question is why the West does not apply the principles it defends in Ukraine to Israel with the same resolve. In his view the gap cannot be explained away as diplomatic nuance. It is a plain double standard, and it erodes Western soft power worldwide.

İldem argues that the Italian expert Nathalie Tocci's 2009 diagnosis, 'firm in rhetoric, accommodating in practice', still holds 17 years on. He cites her comparison between 19 EU sanctions packages against Russia and the hesitation over suspending Israel's trade privileges. His concrete example is von der Leyen's speech of 16 September. The E1 settlement project was declared illegitimate, but member states could not muster the majority needed for a joint response. The EU, he writes, has tools at hand, including the Association Agreement, trade and arms sales. What it lacks is shared political will, and German resistance matters here. He concludes that empty seats carry no meaning unless violations come with a concrete cost.

Blind spot

What the West misses: the West treats pressure on Israel as Middle East diplomacy, while a retired Turkish ambassador sees it as a legitimacy problem for the Ukraine sanctions coalition. Weakness: it is a column, with no trade or voting figures, and German resistance is not documented. A similar double standard in the East and the Muslim world is acknowledged but not examined; Türkiye's own stance is not discussed.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The piece argues that the West has hardened its rhetoric on Israel without turning it into sanctions, and locates the blockage in the lack of unanimity or a majority inside the EU. Von der Leyen's 16 September speech confirms this deadlock at an official level. The most likely path is that narrow trade measures on settlement goods continue while broader tools such as the Association Agreement go unused.

Likely effects

  • Russia sanctions coalitionNegative6 months+

    A perceived double standard could weaken Global South compliance with the sanctions regime built for Ukraine, and blunt the West's call for a rules-based order.

  • EU–Israel trade relationsUncertain1–6 months

    French, British and Canadian measures on settlement goods affect trade only narrowly; while member states stay divided, the Association Agreement is hard to touch.

  • Türkiye's diplomatic positionUncertain1–6 months

    Criticism of double standards from Ankara strengthens Türkiye's pitch as a broker between the West and the Global South, though, as the author concedes, the same charge can be levelled at the East.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Tough words, narrow measures60%

    EU members take settlement-focused trade steps individually, with no joint EU sanctions and no suspension of the agreement.

    Watch: Whether the EU Foreign Affairs Council reaches the majority needed for a joint response to E1

  2. 2
    Gradual EU sanctions25%

    As Germany softens its stance, the EU takes a joint step such as partially suspending trade privileges.

    Watch: Berlin's vote on the EU–Israel Association Agreement

  3. 3
    Western retreat15%

    Strategic interests take priority, and after a few sharp statements even the settlement measures stall.

    Watch: Whether France, Britain and Canada bring their settlement goods measures into force

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Original publication: edam.org.tr · 28 September 2026

This page summarises the institution's view and does not reflect the view of Talay Insight. No direct quotation is used.