From Kuala Lumpur, US–China stability is Southeast Asia's most valuable insurance

Summary

Thomas Daniel, director of foreign policy and security studies at ISIS Malaysia, takes Xi Jinping's September visit to Washington as his starting point. The piece first appeared in Asian Dispatch on 1 October 2026 and was republished by the institute on 5 October. In Daniel's view the visit went smoothly but was heavy on symbolism and light on substance. The two sides extended their trade truce by two months and pledged to keep up high-level contacts. Beijing presented the outcome as strategic stability, while Washington said the hard issues had been deferred.

The author's real interest is the region. A decade ago, the mutual dependence of the two economies seemed to rule out technological decoupling. The trade war that began in 2018, however, spread to semiconductors, investment, supply chains, artificial intelligence and critical minerals, with both sides widening restrictions in turn. For Southeast Asia, Daniel argues, this means both an opportunity from shifting supply chains and a risk of being split into rival blocs; economic decisions now carry security consequences.

Daniel writes that the 11-member ASEAN must manage two competitive relationships at once. The year 2026 marks the fifth anniversary of the ASEAN–China Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and the first year of its 2026–2030 Plan of Action. This year the region also reaffirmed its comprehensive strategic partnership with the US. In the author's view the right tools are ASEAN centrality and non-alignment, and working with dialogue partners such as Japan, Australia, India and the EU also preserves strategic autonomy. Divided positions on the South China Sea, US tariffs and Myanmar, however, show the limits of the consensus principle.