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Container cranes and a ship at the Port of Djibouti at sunset

I Geo-Economics & ChokepointsSub-Saharan Africa

Seen from Accra, BRICS membership will not end Ghana's external dependence

Container terminal at the Port of Djibouti (December 2015)Photo: Skilla1st / Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0 · resized · Source
Institution
IMANI Centre for Policy and Education
Author
Sitsofe John Mensah
Country · language
Ghana · English
Affiliation
Independent think tank

Summary

Writing for Accra-based IMANI on 9 October 2026, Sitsofe John Mensah treats Ghana's exploration of BRICS membership as a significant strategic turn. In his view the interest reflects fatigue with the conditionality of the Bretton Woods institutions and with dollar dominance. Financing from the New Development Bank that carries no domestic-policy conditions is attractive, as is the chance to reduce reliance on the dollar in bilateral trade. Mensah argues, however, that membership alone will not cure economic dependence; it may simply change the address of the creditor and the supplier.

Mensah's core concern is the structure of the economy. Ghana exports raw commodities such as gold, cocoa and oil and imports machinery and staple foods, so moving closer to BRICS could widen the trade deficit without changing that pattern. He also flags the risk that cheap goods from China and India could undergo light assembly in Ghana, be labelled as local products and enter a continental market of more than 1 billion people duty-free. That would hurt African industry and could set Ghana, host of the AfCFTA secretariat, against Nigeria.

On security, the author points to the three Sahel states that have left ECOWAS and partnered with Moscow, and warns that closer ties with BRICS could strain Ghana's security and trade choices with Western partners. He sets out seven recommendations. The first three are industrialisation rather than raw-material exports, strict enforcement of rules of origin, and applying environmental law against illegal mining. The rest begin with a return to Nkrumah's line of active non-alignment. They add African payment systems so that the yuan does not simply replace the dollar, a strong civil service, and channelling BRICS capital into regional railways and logistics.

Blind spot

The piece treats BRICS mainly as a channel for finance and trade, but it does not quantify Ghana's relationship with existing creditors in its post-IMF-programme debt restructuring, or the New Development Bank's real lending capacity. Nor does it assess how far Gulf–Iran and India–China divisions within BRICS make it harder for the bloc to offer Africa a shared list of financing priorities.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

IMANI's reading shows that African interest in BRICS is a search for finance rather than ideology, but that without structural reform dependence will merely shift. Ghana, with a population of 33 million, draws its real bargaining power from its position in an AfCFTA market of more than 1 billion people. The most likely path is a cautious rapprochement at partner level rather than membership, while keeping a balance with Western finance.

Likely effects

  • External financeUncertain1–6 months

    Unconditional lending from the New Development Bank gives Ghana an option outside Bretton Woods, but its bargaining value stays limited while amounts and maturities remain unclear.

  • Regional tradeNegative1–6 months

    If rules of origin are not strictly enforced, duty-free transit of Asian goods through Ghana would create trade tension with Nigeria inside the AfCFTA.

  • Security partnershipsNegative6 months+

    After three Sahel states turned towards Moscow, closer BRICS ties could call into question the continuity of Ghana's Western security and trade choices.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Cautious partnership55%

    Ghana opts for a limited step, such as partner-country status or New Development Bank membership, rather than full membership.

    Watch: A Ghanaian government application for BRICS partnership or an announcement on New Development Bank membership

  2. 2
    Application for full membership25%

    Accra applies for full membership to gain local-currency trade and infrastructure finance.

    Watch: Announcement of a formal BRICS membership application

  3. 3
    Return to the Western line20%

    Pressure from debt and trade commitments shelves the BRICS agenda.

    Watch: Ghana failing to attend BRICS meetings at ministerial level

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Original publication: imaniafrica.org · 10 October 2026

This page summarises the institution's view and does not reflect the view of Talay Insight. No direct quotation is used.