III Kinetic Conflicts & DefenceEurope
Seen from Moscow, NATO's Article 5 is no automatic defence guarantee
- Institution
- Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC)
- Author
- Dmitriy Trenin
- Country · language
- Russia · English
- Affiliation
- Council co-founded by the state
Summary
The article by RIAC president Dmitriy Trenin, published on the council's website on 29 September 2026, first appeared on the Russian state broadcaster RT. Trenin argues that Article 5 of the 1949 Washington Treaty is widely misunderstood. In his view, the article was deliberately drafted to be vague in order to allay the US Senate's concerns about a binding alliance, and it does not provide for an automatic military response. Throughout the Cold War, US nuclear strategy aimed to avoid direct nuclear conflict with the Soviet Union and to confine any war to Europe. Today, Trenin writes, the Trump administration is shifting US forces to East Asia and the Pacific and handing the burden of NATO's defence to its European members.
The author contends that, because of Moscow's warnings of nuclear escalation, the US will not risk direct war with Russia for its allies. He presents Ukrainian leaders' pursuit of NATO membership as a mistake, arguing that Washington never considered giving Kyiv even a symbolic security guarantee. He applies the same lesson to 3 more regions. In the Arab Gulf states hosting US bases, he writes, those bases drew Iranian drones and missiles like a magnet during the US–Iran conflict. In East Asia he sees the Philippines and Japan as first candidates for containing China, and predicts Taiwan's importance to Washington will decline once its semiconductor industry moves to the US. He concludes by advising countries in Eastern and Northern Europe considering hosting US or French nuclear facilities to think again.
Blind spot
What the West misses: in the West, the debate on alliance credibility is read as Washington's demand for burden-sharing. Moscow uses the same debate to urge allies in Europe, the Gulf and East Asia to seek accommodation with their neighbours rather than guarantees. The weakness of this reading: the text first appeared on RT and carries the Kremlin line; it does not weigh Russia's own threat perception, NATO's deterrence record or Europe's rearmament.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Trenin's piece turns the ambiguity of Article 5 into a narrative favouring Russia at a time when the US is shifting its priority to East Asia. Its audience is not only Europe: it also urges US allies in the Gulf and East Asia to rely on relations with their neighbours rather than on guarantees. The most likely path is that this line is repeated in Russian state media and diplomatic rhetoric, while in Europe concern over guarantees mostly translates into building up its own capacity.
Likely effects
- NATO cohesionNegative1–6 months
Shifting US forces to East Asia and handing the burden to European members lends ground to the argument that Article 5 is not automatic, and feeds the debate over trust within the alliance.
- Gulf securityUncertain1–6 months
The claim that US bases attract Iranian strikes brings the cost-benefit debate over basing agreements in Gulf host states onto the agenda in a way that serves Russia.
- Reading for TürkiyeUncertain1–6 months
As both a NATO member and host to US facilities, Türkiye fits the profile the text's warnings on bases and nuclear facilities address. Moscow can be expected to use this rhetoric in its diplomacy towards Ankara too.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Rhetoric continues, alliance holds60%
Russian institutions repeat the line, but European members answer concern over guarantees with defence spending and their own deterrence debate.
Watch: Eastern and Northern European countries continuing to debate hosting US or French nuclear facilities
- 2Rift within the alliance deepens25%
The US priority on Asia turns into a concrete force withdrawal, and some European and Gulf allies openly question the guarantees.
Watch: An announced, concrete decision to reduce US force levels in Europe
- 3Guarantee reaffirmed15%
Washington reaffirms its commitment to Article 5 with concrete steps and Moscow's argument loses its force.
Watch: A US announcement of new permanent forces or exercise commitments in Eastern Europe
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Original publication: russiancouncil.ru · 29 September 2026
This page summarises the institution's view and does not reflect the view of Talay Insight. No direct quotation is used.