MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security23 October 2026, Friday

Bayraktar confirms Russian diesel understanding as Novatek pitches LNG

Energy Minister Bayraktar said on 23 October at the 19th Eurasian Economic Forum in Verona, held in Istanbul, that there is a general understanding with Russia on diesel supply. A day earlier, at the same forum, Novatek chairman Mikhelson said the company was in talks to sell LNG to Türkiye.

Location: ISTANBUL

Bayraktar said an understanding exists but specific contracts must be confirmed by the companies; neither Interfax nor Bloomberg HT reported volumes or prices. Russia had banned diesel exports to protect its domestic market. The ban was due to run until 31 October 2026 for producers and until 31 January 2027 for non-producers. After the Trump–Putin call on 9 October, OFAC issued a temporary licence and Moscow partly lifted the ban from 10 October.

Mikhelson said on 22 October that Novatek was negotiating LNG supplies to Türkiye. Two Russian agencies conflict on how far the talks have gone. Interfax quoted Mikhelson as saying the matter was no longer at the discussion stage, while state agency TASS quoted him as saying everything was still under discussion. Mikhelson argued that spot purchases tied to exchange prices impose large extra costs on Türkiye and proposed a long-term contract.

The same day in Istanbul, Bayraktar signed an energy memorandum of understanding with Slovakia covering gas trading, nuclear power and critical minerals. He pledged to contribute to supply security in Central and Eastern Europe. Interfax wrote that Mikhelson said there was no shortage of physical volumes, but that the crisis was hurting the Turkish economy.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Türkiye is trying to regain access to Russian diesel, cut off by the ban, through the window a US licence has opened. The understanding, however, carries no volumes and depends on company sign-off. Novatek's offer of a multi-year LNG deal shows a Russian producer bracing to lose the EU market and eyeing Türkiye as an alternative outlet. No binding contract exists yet.

Likely effects

Türkiye's fuel supplyPositiveWeeks
If companies confirm contracts, diesel supply sources widen; Russian refining capacity and the status of the ban after 31 October cap the volumes.
Türkiye's gas pricingUncertain6 months+
A multi-year LNG contract could dampen spot price volatility, at the cost of deeper energy dependence on Russia.
Relations with the WestNegative1–6 months
Higher purchases of Russian LNG and diesel could raise a fresh alignment question between Türkiye and an EU that is tightening sanctions.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Limited diesel shipments55%
Turkish companies sign for a few cargoes; the LNG talks continue without a result.
Watch: Company statements by Turkish importers on Russian diesel cargoes and the 31 October ban decision
2
Multi-year LNG contract25%
A multi-year LNG deal between a Turkish buyer and Novatek is announced.
Watch: A binding contract announcement for Türkiye by Novatek or the Energy Ministry
3
Understanding stays on paper20%
Russia extends the ban over domestic-market concerns and companies give no confirmation.
Watch: The Russian government extending the producer ban beyond 31 October

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Russian diesel ban (producers)▼ until 31 October
Novatek–Türkiye LNG▲ in talks

Bottom line

Likely effects

Possibilities, ranked

Sources