HighIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt29 September 2026, Tuesday
Erdoğan sets up fully empowered board under Yılmaz for fund liquidation
President Erdoğan convened the economic management team on 29 September. A Fund Coordination Board chaired by Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz was set up for the funds in liquidation, and the State Supervisory Council opened a review. The BIST 100 fell 2.40% the same day to 12,290.58 points.
AA reported on 29 September that the Economy Coordination Meeting was attended by the economic management team and senior officials of the relevant institutions. Two concrete decisions came out of the meeting. A Fund Coordination Board was set up to run the liquidation process. The State Supervisory Council (DDK), an audit body attached to the Presidency, began reviewing recent fund transactions. According to a Bloomberg HT report timed at 21:15, the capital markets regulator SPK presented a roadmap for payments to investors whose ownership has been confirmed. The same report said information was also given on the transfer of 3 finance companies to Türkiye Emlak Katılım Bankası.
The market reaction came before the meeting. According to AA, the BIST 100 lost 302.18 points on 29 September to close 2.40% lower at 12,290.58 points; trading volume was 108.8 billion lira. The leasing and factoring index was the worst-performing sector with a fall of 8.20%, while the banking index rose 0.10%. The index had also fallen 2.38% on 28 September. The SPK's payment timetable and amount could not be verified, as neither source disclosed them.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Ankara has moved the fund crisis out of the judicial process and into a liquidation run through political coordination. The board and the DDK review signal institutional ownership, but the repair of confidence will stay limited until the payment timetable and amount are disclosed. The BIST's loss of about 4.7% in two days shows the market is waiting for the timetable.
Likely effects
- Capital marketsUncertainWeeks
If the payment roadmap is announced with concrete dates and amounts, fund outflows could slow; if not, pressure on factoring and holding company shares will continue.
- Investor confidencePositive1–6 months
The DDK review and the pledge of further legislation strengthen expectations that oversight will tighten against a repeat of similar cases.
- Financial sectorNegative1–6 months
The transfer of 3 finance companies to a state participation bank raises the risk of troubled assets passing onto the public balance sheet.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Controlled liquidation55%
The board announces the payment timetable within a few weeks, fund outflows slow and the stock market settles into a volatile equilibrium.
Watch: An SPK payment announcement with dates and amounts
- 2Prolonged uncertainty35%
New detentions and an undisclosed payment timetable keep selling pressure alive, and CDS stays around 250 basis points.
Watch: Türkiye's 5-year CDS and the BIST factoring index
- 3Contagion10%
The problem spreads to banking and private pension funds, and additional liquidity measures are needed.
Watch: Weekly net outflows from private pension (BES) funds and statements from the banking regulator BDDK
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- BIST 100▼ −2.40%
- Factoring index▼ −8.20%
- BIST trading volume▲ 108.8 billion lira