MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints29 September 2026, Tuesday
DEİK warns China's new export route overlaps with Turkish markets
A DEİK report of 29 September shows China's share of the US market fell from 14.68% in 2024 to 11.14% in 2025 after US tariffs. China raised exports to Africa by 25.9% and to the Middle East by 9.7%; these are markets where Turkish exporters are strong.
According to a report by DEİK (Foreign Economic Relations Board) carried by AA, China redirected its exports to new regions after the tariffs the US imposed in 2025. China's exports rose by 25.9% to Africa, 9.7% to the Middle East and 8.63% to the EU. The report also makes a direct comparison with Türkiye: in 2025 China exported 19.97 billion dollars to Egypt, against Türkiye's 4.07 billion dollars. For the UAE, the same figures were 72.9 billion dollars and 9.28 billion dollars.
Ekonomim reported on 30 September that China's annual trade surplus with the US fell from about 650 billion dollars to around 300 billion dollars. According to the report, this means about 350 billion dollars of export capacity is turning to other markets. DEİK Chairman Nail Olpak said China would cut prices aggressively as it enters new markets. Olpak advised Turkish firms to position themselves as a 'reliable supplier' rather than compete on price. The same report said the Middle Corridor railway cuts delivery time from Asia to Europe to 11 days, from 35–45 days by sea. The 350 billion dollar figure is an estimate and could not be verified independently of the report's text.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The side effects of the US-China trade war are spilling into Türkiye's export markets. In markets such as Egypt and the UAE, China already exports 5 to 8 times as much as Türkiye; if price pressure grows, Turkish exporters' margins will narrow. Proximity and speed of delivery remain Türkiye's main line of defence.
Likely effects
- Turkish exportsNegative1–6 months
Chinese price cutting in Africa and the Middle East could erode Turkish exporters' share and profit margins in price-sensitive goods.
- Supply chainPositive6 months+
For European buyers seeking nearby supply, Türkiye's role as a production and investment base could strengthen.
- Logistics advantageNegative6 months+
According to Ekonomim, the Middle Corridor railway cuts Asia-Europe delivery to 11 days, from 35–45 days by sea; this could weaken Türkiye's proximity advantage.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Gradual loss of share55%
China increases its share in Africa and the Gulf, and Turkish exports grow slowly in these markets.
Watch: TİM's monthly export data by country, Egypt and UAE lines
- 2Safeguard measures30%
Ankara widens trade policy measures against imports from China and gives exporters market support.
Watch: New trade policy decisions on Chinese-origin products in the Official Gazette
- 3Tariffs soften15%
A tariff reduction between the US and China redirects Chinese capacity back to the US.
Watch: A tariff statement from US-China trade talks
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- China's US market share▼ 14.68% → 11.14%
- China's exports to Africa▲ +25.9%
- China's exports to the Middle East▲ +9.7%