MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence25 September 2026, Friday

Mecca pact reaches the military table: Turkish, Pakistani and Saudi chiefs of staff meet in Riyadh on 25 September; Houthis fire 6 ballistic missiles

Under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signed in August 2026, General Selçuk Bayraktaroğlu, Field Marshal Asim Munir and General Fayyadh Al-Ruwaili met in Riyadh on 25 September. The meeting was called after the 3 foreign ministers' talks in New York on 24 September; no joint military response was announced.

Location: RIYADH

According to a 25 September Turkish Minute report, Hakan Fidan, Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan met in New York on 24 September and condemned attacks on Saudi civilian and economic infrastructure and on Mecca; the Houthis deny targeting Mecca. According to Euronews Türkçe, the 3 countries signed the agreement in August 2026, which treats an armed attack on one member as an attack on all and refers to Article 51 of the UN Charter. According to the same report, Saudi authorities said on 24 September they had intercepted 6 ballistic missiles fired by the Houthis, while the Houthis claimed to have launched dozens of missiles and drones.

According to an NTV report published at 09:09 on 25 September and updated at 21:45, Bayraktaroğlu met in Riyadh with Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, Chief of Defence Forces and Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan, and General Fayyadh bin Hamed Al-Ruwaili, Chief of the Saudi General Staff. Fidan said the alliance would address military needs particularly in certain technical areas; according to Sözcü, Fidan stated that they had the capability to provide all kinds of military support within the framework of the agreement. According to Turkish Minute, no public joint military response or concrete operational commitment was announced at the end of the meeting. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia intensified in July 2026.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The pact signed in August operated at chief-of-staff level for the first time on 25 September; however, the absence of an announced joint response shows that Türkiye is for now keeping its commitment at the level of technical support. While the Houthis' 6 ballistic missiles of 24 September continue, Riyadh's concrete requests will grow; the most likely path is for Türkiye to stay out of direct conflict with a limited contribution in air defence and technical areas.

Likely effects

TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
The pact binds Ankara for the first time to a mutual defence obligation in the Gulf; if Houthi attacks escalate, a request to deploy troops or systems could carry costs in domestic politics and in relations with Iran.
Defence industryPositive1–6 months
Fidan's emphasis on needs in technical areas suggests that Saudi and Pakistani demand for Turkish defence systems could accelerate within the pact framework.
Oil supplyNegativeWeeks
Houthi missiles targeting Saudi infrastructure keep the risk premium alive in Brent, at $106.07 on 25 September; this in turn increases Türkiye's energy bill.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Technical support, no direct role60%
Türkiye contributes in air defence and technical equipment and does not assume a combat role on the ground.
Watch: Statements on shipments or personnel to Saudi Arabia in the Ministry of National Defence weekly briefing
2
Joint response plan25%
If Houthi attacks continue, the 3 countries announce a joint air defence or naval mission.
Watch: A second chiefs of staff meeting and joint communiqué
3
Tension eases15%
Houthi attacks decline as a result of US–Iran contacts, and the pact returns to an institutional development agenda.
Watch: The Saudi coalition's weekly count of intercepted missiles

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Houthi missiles intercepted (24 Sep)▲ 6
Pact members▲ 3 countries
Brent▲ $106.07

Historical context