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TALAYINSIGHT
RegionMiddle East and North Africa

HighIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence22 September 2026, Tuesday

Trump meets 12 regional countries including Türkiye at the UN, US and Iranian delegations talk for 3 hours; Tehran sets 3 conditions on Hormuz

On 22 September, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Trump convened the 6 Gulf states together with Jordan, Egypt, Türkiye, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria. The same day US envoys Witkoff and Kushner talked with Iranian officials for about 3 hours; Foreign Minister Araghchi listed 3 conditions for reopening Hormuz.

NEW YORK

According to the Times of Israel, on 22 September 2026, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, US President Donald Trump hosted a 12-country meeting comprising the 6 members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman) plus Jordan, Egypt, Türkiye, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria; Israel and Iran were not at the table. Trump said there was strong momentum for a deal with Iran and that he expected an agreement by the midterm elections or sooner. According to Dünya Bülteni, President Erdoğan also attended; the main agenda of the meeting, held in roughly the seventh month of the war, was Iran and regional security.

According to Fox News, Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner talked with Iranian representatives for about 3 hours the same day; Trump described the meeting as having gone very well. Iranian state television reported that Tehran's firm positions had been conveyed to the US representatives. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi listed 3 conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz: the immediate lifting of the naval blockade, the release of frozen Iranian assets and an end to fighting on all resistance fronts. Araghchi also met EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, the Prime Minister of Qatar and the Swiss Foreign Minister.

Diplomacy and pressure are operating at the same time. Fox News wrote that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had announced Iranian airlines would be shut down from 24 September, while Türkiye Today and Al Jazeera give the date as 23 September; the two dates could not be reconciled. Erdoğan told reporters in New York they were working to overcome the difficulties in the Gulf and wanted to see results as soon as possible; he said the timing of any meeting between Pezeshkian and Trump was unclear.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

While opening direct contact with Iran, Washington is bringing regional countries, Türkiye included, to the same table; but Tehran's 3 conditions require the blockade and frozen assets to be resolved first, which clashes with the US tightening aviation sanctions the same week. The most likely path is for contacts to continue but for Hormuz not to reopen in the near term.

Likely effects

  • Oil pricesUncertainWeeks

    News of the talks pulled Brent down to 98.55 dollars on 22 September; unless the conditions are met, the risk premium will not fully unwind and the price will stay sensitive to headlines.

  • Türkiye's room for mediationUncertain1–6 months

    Erdoğan's seat at the 12-country table gives Ankara visibility in Gulf diplomacy; at the same time, sanctions compliance on Iran flights narrows its room for manoeuvre with Tehran.

  • Gulf securityNegative1–6 months

    The condition of ending fighting on the resistance fronts ties the Houthis and Iraqi militias to the bargaining; a ceasefire on a single front is not considered sufficient.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Contacts continue, strait stays closed55%

    The delegations meet again but no step is taken on the blockade or assets, and Hormuz traffic stays low.

    Watch: The date of a second round of US–Iran talks and the weekly Hormuz transit count

  2. 2
    Gradual framework30%

    The parties agree on a transit corridor in exchange for a partial easing of the blockade.

    Watch: A US statement on easing the naval blockade or on frozen assets

  3. 3
    Talks collapse15%

    Aviation sanctions and attacks continue, and Tehran suspends contacts.

    Watch: Iran officially announcing the suspension of contacts with the US

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Historical context

Strait of Hormuz transits, last 6 months

-51026415615/0510/0606/0731/0726/0821/099 September 2026 — US and Iran strike tankers in the largest wave of attacks on shipping since the war began113 September 2026 — Panama-flagged tanker El Gaia struck off Oman, two crew members missing214 September 2026 — Ship-tracking data at Hormuz contradict the US Energy Secretary's claim of 10 million barrels a day in flows317 September 2026 — European gas storage enters winter 68.5% full as TTF traded in a 77-79 euro band on 17 September4
  1. 109/09 · US and Iran strike tankers in the largest wave of attacks on shipping since the war began
  2. 213/09 · Panama-flagged tanker El Gaia struck off Oman, two crew members missing
  3. 314/09 · Ship-tracking data at Hormuz contradict the US Energy Secretary's claim of 10 million barrels a day in flows
  4. 417/09 · European gas storage enters winter 68.5% full as TTF traded in a 77-79 euro band on 17 September

Sources

  1. The Times of Israel — Meeting Arab leaders at UN, Trump says there's a lot of momentum for Iran deal
  2. Fox News — Trump says Iran deal nearing after UN talks as Tehran sets conditions to reopen Strait of Hormuz
  3. Dünya Bülteni — President Erdoğan attends Trump's meeting of Gulf countries
  4. Zafer Gazetesi — President Erdoğan answers questions in New York
  5. Investing.com — Brent Oil Futures Historical Data