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TALAYINSIGHT
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RegionMiddle East and North Africa

HighIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence22 September 2026, Tuesday

Trump meets 12 regional countries including Türkiye at the UN, US and Iranian delegations talk for 3 hours; Tehran sets 3 conditions on Hormuz

On 22 September, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Trump convened the 6 Gulf states together with Jordan, Egypt, Türkiye, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria. The same day US envoys Witkoff and Kushner talked with Iranian officials for about 3 hours; Foreign Minister Araghchi listed 3 conditions for reopening Hormuz.

The UN General Assembly hall, New York (February 2024) — archive photoPhoto: Mojnsen / Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0 · resized · Source
Location: NEW YORK

According to the Times of Israel, on 22 September 2026, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, US President Donald Trump hosted a 12-country meeting comprising the 6 members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman) plus Jordan, Egypt, Türkiye, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria; Israel and Iran were not at the table. Trump said there was strong momentum for a deal with Iran and that he expected an agreement by the midterm elections or sooner. According to Dünya Bülteni, President Erdoğan also attended; the main agenda of the meeting, held in roughly the seventh month of the war, was Iran and regional security.

According to Fox News, Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner talked with Iranian representatives for about 3 hours the same day; Trump described the meeting as having gone very well. Iranian state television reported that Tehran's firm positions had been conveyed to the US representatives. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi listed 3 conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz: the immediate lifting of the naval blockade, the release of frozen Iranian assets and an end to fighting on all resistance fronts. Araghchi also met EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, the Prime Minister of Qatar and the Swiss Foreign Minister.

Diplomacy and pressure are operating at the same time. Fox News wrote that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had announced Iranian airlines would be shut down from 24 September, while Türkiye Today and Al Jazeera give the date as 23 September; the two dates could not be reconciled. Erdoğan told reporters in New York they were working to overcome the difficulties in the Gulf and wanted to see results as soon as possible; he said the timing of any meeting between Pezeshkian and Trump was unclear.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

While opening direct contact with Iran, Washington is bringing regional countries, Türkiye included, to the same table; but Tehran's 3 conditions require the blockade and frozen assets to be resolved first, which clashes with the US tightening aviation sanctions the same week. The most likely path is for contacts to continue but for Hormuz not to reopen in the near term.

Likely effects

  • Oil pricesUncertainWeeks

    News of the talks pulled Brent down to 98.55 dollars on 22 September; unless the conditions are met, the risk premium will not fully unwind and the price will stay sensitive to headlines.

  • Türkiye's room for mediationUncertain1–6 months

    Erdoğan's seat at the 12-country table gives Ankara visibility in Gulf diplomacy; at the same time, sanctions compliance on Iran flights narrows its room for manoeuvre with Tehran.

  • Gulf securityNegative1–6 months

    The condition of ending fighting on the resistance fronts ties the Houthis and Iraqi militias to the bargaining; a ceasefire on a single front is not considered sufficient.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Contacts continue, strait stays closed55%

    The delegations meet again but no step is taken on the blockade or assets, and Hormuz traffic stays low.

    Watch: The date of a second round of US–Iran talks and the weekly Hormuz transit count

  2. 2
    Gradual framework30%

    The parties agree on a transit corridor in exchange for a partial easing of the blockade.

    Watch: A US statement on easing the naval blockade or on frozen assets

  3. 3
    Talks collapse15%

    Aviation sanctions and attacks continue, and Tehran suspends contacts.

    Watch: Iran officially announcing the suspension of contacts with the US

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Historical context

Strait of Hormuz transits, last 6 months

-51026415618/0614/0709/0803/0929/0925/109 September 2026 — US and Iran strike tankers in the largest wave of attacks on shipping since the war began113 September 2026 — Panama-flagged tanker El Gaia struck off Oman, two crew members missing214 September 2026 — Ship-tracking data at Hormuz contradict the US Energy Secretary's claim of 10 million barrels a day in flows317 September 2026 — European gas storage enters winter 68.5% full as TTF traded in a 77-79 euro band on 17 September422 September 2026 — Brent falls from 104.82 dollars on 17 September to 100.05 dollars on 22 September as Hormuz transit data conflict522 September 2026 — Iran puts an offer to reopen Hormuz within 7 days on the table; the same day a parliamentary committee approves fines of 20% of cargo for violators622 September 2026 — Trump meets 12 regional countries including Türkiye at the UN, US and Iranian delegations talk for 3 hours; Tehran sets 3 conditions on Hormuz723 September 2026 — Bulk carrier Cape Dao hit by two projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, 1 Indian seafarer killed; IMO counts 83 attacks and 23 deaths since the conflict began823 September 2026 — Iran raises its conditions for reopening Hormuz to 7; according to Kpler, only 3 commodity vessels transited the strait on 22 September924 September 2026 — 10 commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on 23 September, 9 of them inbound to the Gulf; preliminary data for 22 September revised from 3 to 7 ships1024 September 2026 — Tracked Hormuz transits fell to 9 on 24 September, 8 of them outbound; 23 September revised from 10 to 14, while The National gave 13 for the same day1126 September 2026 — Trump says 29 ships left Hormuz overnight; independent tracking data show single-digit transits, barrel estimates range from 3.7 to 16.4 million1228 September 2026 — More than half of Hormuz transits now happen with transponders off1329 September 2026 — Tankers are hit in Hormuz, yet transits still rise to 17144 October 2026 — Hormuz tanker attacks turn almost daily, yet transits still rise155 October 2026 — Estimates of oil flowing through Hormuz diverge by up to fivefold167 October 2026 — Tanker struck off Qatar as attacks move deeper into the Gulf177 October 2026 — Iran threatens to close Hormuz routes along Oman's coast188 October 2026 — Hormuz transits fall to a two-month low1913 October 2026 — Gulf crude exports top September despite mounting Hormuz attacks2014 October 2026 — Container ship GFS Pride sinks after being struck in Hormuz2116 October 2026 — Two tankers hit off Jubail as attacks reach the northern Gulf2219 October 2026 — IRGC announces a third mine claim with no independent confirmation2319 October 2026 — Iran widens its Hormuz blacklist to 122 vessels2419 October 2026 — Kpler sees Gulf exports at 8.5 million barrels as Washington claims recovery2520 October 2026 — Iran says it has opened dedicated Hormuz lanes for Iraqi oil2621 October 2026 — Kuwaiti tanker hit in Hormuz as October attacks double2722 October 2026 — Hormuz attacks concentrate on the US-protected southern route2824 October 2026 — Iran's own news agency denies its Hormuz-for-blockade offer29
  1. 109/09 · US and Iran strike tankers in the largest wave of attacks on shipping since the war began
  2. 213/09 · Panama-flagged tanker El Gaia struck off Oman, two crew members missing
  3. 314/09 · Ship-tracking data at Hormuz contradict the US Energy Secretary's claim of 10 million barrels a day in flows
  4. 417/09 · European gas storage enters winter 68.5% full as TTF traded in a 77-79 euro band on 17 September
  5. 522/09 · Brent falls from 104.82 dollars on 17 September to 100.05 dollars on 22 September as Hormuz transit data conflict
  6. 622/09 · Iran puts an offer to reopen Hormuz within 7 days on the table; the same day a parliamentary committee approves fines of 20% of cargo for violators
  7. 722/09 · Trump meets 12 regional countries including Türkiye at the UN, US and Iranian delegations talk for 3 hours; Tehran sets 3 conditions on Hormuz
  8. 823/09 · Bulk carrier Cape Dao hit by two projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, 1 Indian seafarer killed; IMO counts 83 attacks and 23 deaths since the conflict began
  9. 923/09 · Iran raises its conditions for reopening Hormuz to 7; according to Kpler, only 3 commodity vessels transited the strait on 22 September
  10. 1024/09 · 10 commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on 23 September, 9 of them inbound to the Gulf; preliminary data for 22 September revised from 3 to 7 ships
  11. 1124/09 · Tracked Hormuz transits fell to 9 on 24 September, 8 of them outbound; 23 September revised from 10 to 14, while The National gave 13 for the same day
  12. 1226/09 · Trump says 29 ships left Hormuz overnight; independent tracking data show single-digit transits, barrel estimates range from 3.7 to 16.4 million
  13. 1328/09 · More than half of Hormuz transits now happen with transponders off
  14. 1429/09 · Tankers are hit in Hormuz, yet transits still rise to 17
  15. 1504/10 · Hormuz tanker attacks turn almost daily, yet transits still rise
  16. 1605/10 · Estimates of oil flowing through Hormuz diverge by up to fivefold
  17. 1707/10 · Tanker struck off Qatar as attacks move deeper into the Gulf
  18. 1807/10 · Iran threatens to close Hormuz routes along Oman's coast
  19. 1908/10 · Hormuz transits fall to a two-month low
  20. 2013/10 · Gulf crude exports top September despite mounting Hormuz attacks
  21. 2114/10 · Container ship GFS Pride sinks after being struck in Hormuz
  22. 2216/10 · Two tankers hit off Jubail as attacks reach the northern Gulf
  23. 2319/10 · IRGC announces a third mine claim with no independent confirmation
  24. 2419/10 · Iran widens its Hormuz blacklist to 122 vessels
  25. 2519/10 · Kpler sees Gulf exports at 8.5 million barrels as Washington claims recovery
  26. 2620/10 · Iran says it has opened dedicated Hormuz lanes for Iraqi oil
  27. 2721/10 · Kuwaiti tanker hit in Hormuz as October attacks double
  28. 2822/10 · Hormuz attacks concentrate on the US-protected southern route
  29. 2924/10 · Iran's own news agency denies its Hormuz-for-blockade offer

Sources

  1. The Times of Israel — Meeting Arab leaders at UN, Trump says there's a lot of momentum for Iran deal
  2. Fox News — Trump says Iran deal nearing after UN talks as Tehran sets conditions to reopen Strait of Hormuz
  3. Dünya Bülteni — President Erdoğan attends Trump's meeting of Gulf countries
  4. Zafer Gazetesi — President Erdoğan answers questions in New York
  5. Investing.com — Brent Oil Futures Historical Data
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