MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints22 September 2026, Tuesday
Turkish airlines suspend Iran flights until March 2027; Mahan Air's Istanbul and Ankara services cut on 21 September
After the US Treasury added 27 Iranian airlines to its sanctions list on 8 September, Mahan Air's Tehran–Istanbul and Tehran–Ankara services stopped from 21 September. Iran flights by Turkish Airlines, Pegasus and AJet do not appear in their booking systems until March 2027.
Following a notice from Türkiye's Directorate General of Civil Aviation, Mahan Air operated its last flights on the Tehran–Istanbul and Tehran–Ankara routes on 20 September 2026; services were cancelled from 21 September until further notice. In the same period the company halted its Oman flights from 17 September and its Georgia flights from 21 September. The decision is linked to the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control adding 27 Iranian airlines not yet under sanctions to its list on 8 September; Mahan Air has been on the US sanctions list since 2011.
In an interview with CNBC on 21 September, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said all Iranian airlines would be shut down worldwide from 23 September: airports and companies providing fuel, landing services or ticket sales to Iranian aircraft face the risk of being cut off from the dollar system. As part of the same campaign, Türkiye-based Golden Global Investment Bank had earlier been added to the sanctions list. According to a report published on 22 September, Iran flights by Turkish Airlines, Pegasus and AJet are suspended until March 2027; according to State Airports Authority data, more than 50 flights a day operated on Iran routes in 2024.
The picture is not fully closed. According to Iranian state media outlet Tasnim, flights from Tehran to Baghdad and Muscat were cancelled from 23 September while Istanbul flights continued. According to Al Jazeera, state-owned Iran Air flies mainly to Iraqi cities and Istanbul, and Qeshm Air to Türkiye. Whether Turkish authorities have taken a written decision on Iranian carriers other than Mahan Air could not be independently verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Türkiye has in practice chosen the path of compliance with secondary sanctions on Iranian aviation: domestic carriers have closed the route until March 2027, and the largest private Iranian carrier has been stopped. The decisive factor is the risk to dollar-system access; the fate of Iran Air's and Qeshm Air's Istanbul flights will show whether compliance is partial or full.
Likely effects
- Turkish tourism and transfer trafficNegative1–6 months
The halt of Iran flights, which exceeded 50 a day in 2024, shrinks Istanbul transfer traffic and revenue from Iranian visitors; road travel and land border crossings come to the fore.
- Turkish financial sectorNegativeWeeks
The listing of a Turkish investment bank leads banks to act more cautiously on Iran-linked payments and services.
- Türkiye–US relationsUncertain1–6 months
Ankara's compliance could open bargaining room with Washington on the defence and sanctions agenda, while creating friction in relations with Iran.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Compliance widens55%
Iran Air's and Qeshm Air's Istanbul flights also stop, and Türkiye is effectively closed to Iranian aviation.
Watch: Whether Iran Air flights at Istanbul Airport are cancelled between 23 and 30 September
- 2Partial compliance continues35%
Limited flights by state carriers other than Mahan Air continue, and Ankara announces no formal general ban.
Watch: A written notice from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation on other Iranian carriers
- 3Exemption negotiation10%
Türkiye and Iraq obtain a limited US exemption for pilgrimage and humanitarian flights, and some services reopen.
Watch: A general licence or exemption announcement by the US Treasury
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Iranian airlines added to sanctions list▼ 27
- Daily Iran flights in 2024▼ 50+
Sources
- Euronews Türkçe — Iranian airline Mahan Air decides to halt Türkiye flights
- Turizm Ekonomi — US embargo: Türkiye bans flights by Iran's Mahan Air
- AirTurkHaber — Turkish Airlines, Pegasus and AJet suspend Iran flights
- Türkiye Today — US Treasury orders global shutdown of Iranian airlines from Sept. 23
- WION — Iranian airlines to shut worldwide on Sept 23, Bessent warns of US banking ban
- Al Jazeera — Can the US ban Iranian airlines worldwide and what would it mean?
- GV Wire (Reuters) — Iraq suspends Iranian flights to Baghdad after US sanctions threat