MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security5 November 2026, Thursday

Bayraktar calls Russian gas too expensive as Gazprom contracts near expiry

Energy Minister Bayraktar said on 5 November that Türkiye is buying less Russian gas and more US gas because of price. BOTAŞ's two contracts with Gazprom, worth roughly 22 billion cubic metres a year, expire on 31 December 2026.

Location: ANKARA

According to the Kyiv Independent on 6 November, Bayraktar described Russian gas as extremely expensive during his presentation of the National Energy 2040 plan on 5 November; the remark was published by the pro-government outlet Türkiye Today. The price Ankara paid Gazprom in 2026 is not public, so the claim that it is expensive could not be verified. Isaac Levi, an energy analyst at CREA, read the statement, made with less than 2 months left on the contracts, as a bargaining signal to Moscow.

Reuters reported on 4 December 2025 that BOTAŞ had extended the Gazprom contracts expiring at the end of 2025 by only 1 year, with 2026 volumes of about 22 billion cubic metres. Bloomberg calculated in November 2025 that the two contracts were capped at 21.75 billion cubic metres a year and that 2024 deliveries totalled 21.6 billion. According to Reuters, Russia's share of Türkiye's gas mix fell from more than 50% in 2018 to below 40% in 2025. A separate Reuters report from April 2026 puts the share at about 35%.

The 2027 calendar has changed the backdrop to the talks. EU rules banning all imports of Russian pipeline gas and LNG take effect in 2027, and Levi argues that losing its largest LNG customer will force Russia into deeper discounts. Bloomberg describes Türkiye as the second-largest buyer of Russian pipeline gas after China as of 2025. Ankara, for its part, expects about 1,500 LNG cargoes from the United States over 10–15 years, most of them linked to Henry Hub, the US gas price index.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Bayraktar's remarks show price talks have opened ahead of the expiry on 31 December of contracts worth roughly 22 billion cubic metres. The EU's 2027 ban narrows Gazprom's alternative markets and strengthens Ankara's hand. The most likely path is a brief extension at a discount; because the price will not be disclosed, the size of any discount cannot be measured from outside.

Likely effects

Energy import billPositive1–6 months
A lower contract price would ease the import bill on roughly 22 billion cubic metres of Russian gas and reduce BOTAŞ's subsidy burden.
Security of supplyNegativeWeeks
With the contracts expiring in midwinter, drawn-out talks would push Türkiye towards a stopgap arrangement in January or expensive spot LNG.
Russian export revenueNegative6 months+
The EU ban combined with Türkiye's push for a discount lowers Gazprom's unit revenue in its remaining pipeline markets.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Brief, discounted extension60%
BOTAŞ signs a brief extension in December at an undisclosed price, with volumes staying around 22 billion cubic metres.
Watch: An extension announcement from BOTAŞ or the Energy Ministry in December
2
Interim flows without a contract25%
No deal is reached by 31 December, flows continue under a stopgap arrangement and talks slip into the first quarter.
Watch: Russian volumes in EPDK's January import data
3
Volume cut15%
Ankara lowers volumes in the new contract and covers the gap with US LNG and Azerbaijani gas.
Watch: A new contract volume below 22 billion cubic metres

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Gazprom contract volume▼ ~22 bcm
Russian gas share▼ ~35%
US LNG cargoes (10–15 yrs)▲ ~1,500

Bottom line

Likely effects

Possibilities, ranked

Sources