MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt8 October 2026, Thursday · 14:30 TRT (UTC+3)
Foreigners exit lira bonds but put 928.5 million dollars into Turkish eurobonds
CBRT data for the week to 2 October, released on 8 October, show foreign investors sold 484.7 million dollars of government domestic debt securities. In the same week, net inflows of 928.5 million dollars went into dollar bonds issued abroad by the Treasury.
Endeks24 reported on 8 October that outflows from DİBS, the lira-denominated government domestic debt securities, extended into a third week, taking the three-week total to 1,008.2 million dollars. Foreign holdings of DİBS fell from 17,121.1 million dollars to 16,659.2 million dollars. Borsa Gündem says foreigners also sold 189.9 million dollars of equities and 60 million dollars of corporate bonds that week, bringing total outflows from domestic markets to 734.6 million dollars.
The money moved into the same country's dollar debt. Endeks24 says 928.5 million dollars flowed into general government issues abroad, while 143.3 million dollars left banks' foreign issues. CBRT data cited by Yatırımx put the total net change in offshore general government, bank and corporate issues at +826.1 million dollars. In other words, foreigners kept Türkiye's credit risk while cutting their lira exposure.
A Bizim Menkul report carried by Foreks shows foreigners are still net buyers of DİBS by 1,001.9 million dollars since the start of the year. In the same week the BIST 100 fell 4.88% and the 2-year benchmark yield dropped 41 basis points. The fall in yields shows rate cut expectations being priced in; foreign investors chose to exit rather than join that move.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
With 484.7 million dollars leaving DİBS and 928.5 million dollars entering eurobonds in the same week, foreign investors are doubting the lira's value, not Türkiye's ability to pay. That distinction makes the currency channel of a rate cut more sensitive; if a cut lowers lira returns, outflows could accelerate. The buffer of 1,001.9 million dollars in net DİBS purchases since January has not yet been used up.
Likely effects
- Lira bond marketNegativeWeeks
The three-week outflow of 1,008.2 million dollars matches the 1,001.9 million dollars of net DİBS inflows left for the year; another outflow of that size turns the year negative.
- External borrowing costsPositiveWeeks
The 928.5 million dollars entering eurobonds shows demand for Treasury dollar debt holds up; the door to external financing is open.
- CurrencyNegative1–6 months
Foreign investors cutting lira assets raises the CBRT's need to defend the currency with reserves; net reserves excluding swaps fell 2 billion dollars the same week.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Divergence continues55%
Foreign investors stay in eurobonds and keep exiting DİBS gradually until the MPC decision.
Watch: DİBS and general government offshore issue flows in the 15 October securities data
- 2Return to DİBS25%
The lira stays calm, rate cut expectations keep lira yields attractive and foreigners return to DİBS.
Watch: Foreign DİBS holdings rising above 17 billion dollars
- 3Broad exit20%
Outflows spread to eurobonds and pricing of credit risk deteriorates.
Watch: 5-year CDS rising above 290 basis points
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Foreign DİBS flow (week)▼ −$484.7m
- DİBS outflow (3 weeks)▼ −$1,008.2m
- Treasury eurobond flow▲ +$928.5m
- Foreign equity flow▼ −$189.9m