Skip to content
Container cranes and a ship at the Port of Djibouti at sunset

V Technology Geopolitics & AISub-Saharan Africa

China-friendly outlet casts mineral export bans as a lever for technology

Container terminal at the Port of Djibouti (December 2015)Photo: Skilla1st / Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0 · resized · Source
Institution
China-US Focus (China-United States Exchange Foundation)
Author
Wang Youming
Country · language
China · English
Affiliation
Hong Kong-based foundation (CUSEF)

Summary

Writing in China-US Focus on 2 November, Wang Youming of Tsinghua University's BRICS economic think tank argues that great-power rivalry is driving a new wave of resource nationalism. He uses the term to mean producer countries attaching conditions to exports so that processing and technology move onto their own soil instead of raw materials leaving unprocessed. In his view, great-power demand for resources such as copper and lithium will rise by 400–600% over the next 10 years.

Wang notes that 12 African countries have introduced new mineral export rules in quick succession. Zimbabwe has banned exports of tungsten and antimony and will halt lithium concentrate exports next year. The Democratic Republic of the Congo has capped cobalt exports at 96,600 tonnes for this year and next. Ghana has cut the maximum term of foreign mining leases from 30 years to 20, and Mali has raised its local ownership requirement from 20% to 35%.

The author sees the same trend elsewhere. Indonesia has banned nickel ore exports since 2020 and has cut its nickel mining quota from 379 million tonnes in 2025 to 250–270 million tonnes this year. Vietnam has placed 17 critical minerals under strategic control, and Chile, Argentina, Peru and Bolivia have agreed on a joint critical minerals alliance. According to Wang, the United States is responding with pressure and incentives, and plans 500 million dollars for the Lobito Corridor railway. China, by contrast, is presented as the party that builds partnerships through technology transfer and training.

Blind spot

The piece frames export restrictions solely as moves by producer countries and the West. It never mentions China's own export controls on rare earths and processing technology, the largest example of the wave. The author's numerical claims carry no sources, and he refers to 6 priority countries while listing 7.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The China-friendly outlet legitimises mineral export restrictions as the right of producer countries against Western supply-chain alliances. The rules in 12 African countries are a real constraint; supply will stay volatile until processing investment arrives. The likeliest path is that producers keep local processing requirements while managing exports through quotas and caps.

Likely effects

  • Critical mineral supplyNegative1–6 months

    Congo's 96,600-tonne cobalt cap and Zimbabwe's ban on lithium concentrate make raw material supply for battery and electronics makers hostage to administrative decisions in a handful of countries.

  • Investment conditions in AfricaNegative6 months+

    Ghana's cut in lease terms from 30 years to 20 and Mali's move to a 35% local share shorten the payback window for foreign investors and raise project risk.

  • Turkish industryNegative6 months+

    Turkish manufacturers that import critical minerals may face local processing requirements more often in supply deals with the 12 African countries.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Restrictions become entrenched55%

    Producer countries keep quotas, caps and local processing requirements; the great powers respond by investing in processing plants.

    Watch: Congo's decision on its 2027 cobalt export cap and the entry into force of Zimbabwe's lithium concentrate ban

  2. 2
    Selective easing30%

    As prices fall, some countries relax quotas or postpone ban dates.

    Watch: Indonesia's nickel quota for next year and the direction of cobalt prices

  3. 3
    Bloc bargaining15%

    The African Union or the Latin American alliance drafts common processing rules, and bloc bargaining replaces country-by-country negotiation.

    Watch: A draft of common critical mineral rules from African Union mining ministers

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Original publication: chinausfocus.com · 6 November 2026

This page summarises the institution's view and does not reflect the view of Talay Insight. No direct quotation is used.