PCNS: double veto leaves an operational, not legal, void in Western Sahara

In a policy note dated 4 November, Mohammed Loulichki of the Rabat-based Policy Center for the New South examines the end of MINURSO, the UN mission in Western Sahara. On 30 October the Security Council vetoed two rival drafts, and the mission's mandate lapsed from 1 November. According to the author, the Council failed to reach a decision on the Sahara for the first time in 35 years. It was also the first time a mandate expired with nothing to replace it.

The US draft won 11 votes in favour with 3 abstentions (China, Pakistan, Somalia) and fell to a Russian veto. It removed the word referendum from the mission's name and described Morocco's autonomy plan as the most feasible solution. Its first version would have ended the mission on 30 April 2027 and turned it into a political mission; that provision was dropped during negotiations. Russia's draft for a one-year technical extension won only 3 votes and fell to a US veto. The author argues it would not have reached the required 9 votes even without the veto.

Loulichki argues that the 1991 ceasefire arrangements rest on a commitment separate from the mission and therefore do not lapse automatically. The real loss, he says, is monitoring and de-escalation capacity. Morocco's Royal Cabinet asked mission staff to leave within days and suspended the UN-led political process. A UN spokesperson announced on 1 November that the liquidation period had begun. The author proposes a special report by the Secretary-General and an interim observation mechanism backed by regional actors.