Seen from the Gulf, reviving old pipelines is the way around Hormuz

Summary

In a commentary published on 29 September 2026, Naji Abi-Aad, senior energy adviser at the Gulf Research Center, draws the main lesson for the region from the Gulf conflict that began in February 2026. Oil that cannot be exported, he argues, has no value in being produced. With Hormuz effectively paralysed, crude leaving the region fell from about 20 million barrels a day to a small fraction of that. Throughout the crisis Saudi Arabia was the only producer able to sustain almost all its exports without passing through Hormuz. Iraq and the UAE could divert only part of their exports outside the strait, while Kuwait and Qatar remained wholly dependent on it. Abi-Aad does not find realistic US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's forecast in early September that Hormuz would become irrelevant within 2 years. For liquefied natural gas (LNG), he writes, there is no concrete alternative route in the next few years.

The author's proposal has two legs: repairing and commissioning pipelines built decades ago that now lie idle, and investing in new lines that bypass the strait. He wants the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC, the organisation of the six Arab Gulf monarchies) to coordinate cost-sharing, pumping rights and transit fees. On storage, he proposes expanding oil and gas stocks both in producing countries and in major consuming countries. As an example of resilience he cites Saudi Arabia repairing, in under 10 days, 3 pumping stations on its East-West Pipeline that had been hit by a drone attack. Abi-Aad sets conditions: buried and parallel lines, AI-assisted leak detectors and ready stocks of spare parts, with each line benefiting source, transit and recipient countries alike.