Somalia needs a political settlement before outside powers capture it

Summary

Writing for Amani Africa on 5 October 2026, Abdul Mohammed and Samira Gaid argue that Somalia's internal divisions are now fed less by clan politics than by external security relationships. Their starting point is 12 September: according to the authors, the Houthis reached Mayun (Perim) island at the mouth of the Bab el-Mandeb, through which roughly 12% of world trade by volume passes, and Washington answered Saudi Arabia's request for help with intelligence support only. The authors say the Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz have merged into a single theatre of war, raising the value of the Red Sea's western shore. The same week Somaliland's leader was in Washington seeking recognition; Israel had recognised Somaliland on 26 December 2025.

According to the piece, Mogadishu cancelled defence and security agreements with the UAE in January, along with deals covering the ports of Berbera, Bosaso and Kismayo; Somaliland, Puntland and Jubaland said they would keep their UAE ties. Türkiye is described as the largest single external security partner through training, a permanent facility, maritime agreements and energy exploration, while links with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are also expanding. The authors stress that patronage is shifting from cash and weapons to irreversible assets such as recognition, basing agreements and defence relationships. The funding gap is widening as well, after the US signalled it would block financing for AUSSOM from assessed contributions beyond 31 December. They recommend public national procedures for foreign military access and port concessions, and a Somaliland political process backed by the AU and IGAD.