From New Delhi, BRICS must not swap one dependence for another

Summary

Writing for the Observer Research Foundation on 30 September 2026, Nilanjan Ghosh, Vice President of Development Studies at ORF, argues that BRICS is entering a third phase as India's 2026 chairship draws to a close. In his account, the first phase sought voice and representation in global governance. The second built options through alternative payment systems and development finance. The third aims at interoperability across finance, digital infrastructure, technology and industry. Ghosh cites India–Russia merchandise trade, which rose from about $13bn in 2021-22 to $69bn in 2024-25, as an example of diversification, and attributes the jump largely to purchases of discounted Russian crude.

His core thesis is that developing countries gain nothing by trading one dominant currency, institution or geopolitical dependence for another. Ghosh sets out 6 proposals. Local-currency settlement needs adequate liquidity and a transparent exchange-rate mechanism. Payment systems should preserve regulatory autonomy. The New Development Bank should mobilise private capital rather than expand its balance sheet. He also calls for interoperable digital standards instead of closed ecosystems, several trade corridors instead of a single route, and concrete institutional arrangements that move beyond the de-dollarisation debate. The author notes that BRICS has no common market, common external tariff or common currency, and concedes that China's economic scale makes it indispensable to the post-2026 agenda.