I Geo-Economics & ChokepointsEurasia
Valdai sees Central Asia's distance from sea lanes as its safeguard
- Institution
- Valdai Discussion Club
- Author
- Timofei Bordachev
- Country · language
- Russia · English
- Affiliation
- State-affiliated platform
Summary
In a piece published on 2 November, Timofei Bordachev, programme director at Valdai and professor at HSE, reads the 35th anniversary of the former Soviet republics' independence through Central Asia. In his view the region sits at the geographic centre of Greater Eurasia, but that does not make it a geopolitical centre. Bordachev describes this peripheral position not as a weakness but as a security advantage resting on 3 factors.
The first is location. The region lies far from 3 conflict belts: Eastern Europe, Northeast Asia and the Middle East. The author concedes that distance from maritime trade routes could become a problem as US–China rivalry hardens at sea. The second is its neighbours. Russia, China and Iran are not allies, but they form a three-way balance in which each avoids moves that would harm the others. Bordachev cites Beijing consulting Moscow before starting the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway.
The third is that the region has no border with active middle powers such as Türkiye, Israel and Japan. The author describes these 3 countries as having long served as instruments of US strategy, and expects Türkiye to try to widen its influence in Central Asia. Ultimately he locates the main threat not outside but in the economic and social problems the 5 countries have inherited from the Soviet era and their years of independence. He regards staying on the periphery, in his words, as "a blessing many can only dream of".
Blind spot
The piece presents the Russia–China–Iran trio as a harmonious guardian, yet never measures their shares of the region's trade or their debt relationships. Labelling Türkiye an instrument of the United States ignores the Organization of Turkic States' own agenda. Iran being at war and under blockade weakens the author's assumption of stable neighbours.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The Valdai reading reflects Moscow's wish to keep Central Asia as a shared buffer for its 3 large neighbours. The piece openly marks Türkiye as a rival influence, suggesting that circles close to the Kremlin will watch Ankara's moves in the region. The likeliest path is that the region keeps multi-vector partnerships without choosing between the great powers.
Likely effects
- Türkiye's role in Central AsiaNegative1–6 months
Valdai treats Türkiye's effort to widen its regional influence as a cause for concern, laying the ground for Russian diplomacy to keep Ankara's transport and organisational initiatives at arm's length.
- Eurasian transport corridorsUncertain6 months+
The claim that the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway was discussed with Moscow in advance shows Russia seeking a right of consultation, not a veto, over overland corridors.
- Domestic stability in the regionNegative6 months+
The author sees the real risk in the economic and social problems of the 5 countries; optimism about external security risks underplaying internal fragility.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Multi-vector balance holds60%
Central Asian governments build separate partnerships with Russia, China, the United States and Türkiye without committing firmly to any bloc.
Watch: The spread of partners in mining and transport deals signed in Central Asian capitals in November–December
- 2Russia–Türkiye friction rises25%
Ankara's corridor and organisational moves draw open pushback from Moscow, and regional governments are caught in between.
Watch: Official Russian criticism directed at the Organization of Turkic States
- 3Internal shock upsets the external balance15%
An economic or political shock hits one country, and the large neighbours compete to intervene.
Watch: A sudden crisis in a regional country driven by the currency, remittances or protests
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Original publication: valdaiclub.com · 6 November 2026
This page summarises the institution's view and does not reflect the view of Talay Insight. No direct quotation is used.