MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints10 October 2026, Saturday
US says it is working with Türkiye to seal Iran's land routes
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Washington is working with Türkiye and Pakistan to close Iran's land routes as part of its isolation campaign. Data cited by Iran International on 10 October show freight from Turkish ports to Iran rising from about $1,500 to $8,000 in under two months, with some 8,000 trucks waiting at Gürbulak.
Bessent made the remarks at a Newsmax summit in Washington; according to The Block, he spoke on Thursday and the comments were published on 9 October. Türkiye Today reported that he named the UAE and Oman as cooperating partners and said about $1 billion in Iran-linked crypto assets could be seized. Ankara and Islamabad did not respond. Türkiye's participation rests solely on Bessent's statement and could not be verified.
The pressure on the ground shows up in Iranian data. Iran International, citing the IRGC-affiliated Fars agency and Ehsan Malekzadeh, head of the International Transport Companies Association, speaking to Mehr, wrote that freight had reached $7,900–8,000. The report does not say whether the figure is per truck, per container or per shipment. The daily cost per truck waiting at the Bazargan–Gürbulak crossing is put at about $175. These figures come from Iranian state-linked sources and could not be independently verified.
The constraint originates in the south. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports has pushed Tehran onto its land borders. According to Iran International, Davoud Rangi of the Iran Chamber of Commerce calculated in August that carrying one ship's worth of basic goods takes about 2,500 trucks. Waits at the Rimdan crossing on the Pakistan border run to 20–25 days, and the Mirjaveh crossing is closed.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The naval blockade has pushed Iranian trade onto its land crossings, and Washington is now going after those too, naming Türkiye explicitly. Ankara's participation is unconfirmed, but the backlog at Gürbulak and fivefold freight rates show the constraint is already physical. The question for Türkiye is how to weigh border trade and transit revenue against its relationship with Washington. The likeliest path is a quiet, undeclared tightening.
Likely effects
- Türkiye–Iran border tradeNegativeWeeks
Trucks stranded at Gürbulak and fivefold freight raise Turkish exporters' delivery costs to Iran, while transit hauliers burn capacity in queues.
- Ankara–Washington tiesUncertain1–6 months
By naming Türkiye, Bessent puts Ankara under pressure either to join or to respond publicly, adding a new item to the bargaining between the two capitals.
- Iranian economyNegative1–6 months
Land routes cannot carry the volume of the southern ports; as import costs climb, price pressure inside Iran builds.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Quiet tightening55%
Without any official statement, Ankara steps up customs checks and sanctions screening; border flows slow but do not stop.
Watch: The truck queue at Gürbulak and Trade Ministry data on exports to Iran
- 2Ankara keeps its distance30%
Türkiye says openly it will not cut land trade, flows continue and friction with Washington grows.
Watch: A response to Bessent from the Foreign or Trade Ministry
- 3Crossings close15%
Türkiye joins a formal mechanism with the US, and transit and exports to Iran contract sharply.
Watch: A joint Turkish–US statement or a formal restriction order at the Iranian border crossings
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Türkiye–Iran freight▼ ≈$8,000
- Trucks waiting at Gürbulak▼ ≈8,000
- Crypto targeted for seizure▼ ≈$1 billion