MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security10 October 2026, Saturday

Turkish diesel jumps over 6 lira as Russia eases its export ban

Russia partly lifted its diesel export ban on 10 October, clearing shipments of 500,000 tonnes in a first stage. The same day, diesel in Türkiye rose by 6.36 lira a litre to 96.55 lira on Istanbul's European side, while petrol fell by 0.96 lira.

Location: ISTANBUL

According to AA, the decision rests on an understanding between Putin and Trump and took effect on 10 October. The ban began on 31 January with non-producing companies and was extended to producers on 9 July. Deputy Prime Minister Novak said output would cover both domestic demand and the approved exports. Bloomberg HT reported that Trump said he had secured a pledge of more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel first, 500,000 tonnes in November, then 1 million and 3 million tonnes. The Kremlin has not confirmed that schedule in figures.

For Türkiye, the order of the queue matters. Data cited by Hydrocarbon Processing show Russia supplied 85% of Türkiye's diesel imports in 2025, at 281,000 barrels a day. According to Kpler, that flow fell to about 80,000 barrels a day and a 20% share in August, with cargoes from India and the US filling the gap. Trump's statement gives priority to the US and world markets; how much of the 500,000 tonnes will head to Türkiye could not be verified.

Sources differ on the size of the increase. Bloomberg HT reports a rise of 6.36 lira to 96.55 lira on Istanbul's European side; Habertürk gives an increase of about 6.50 lira and a price of 96.60 lira. According to Habertürk, diesel costs 97.70 lira in Ankara and 98.00 lira in İzmir. Bloomberg HT attributes the rise to cost pressure in the international diesel market.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The return of Russian diesel opens up supply but gives Türkiye no priority. The first tranche is capped at 500,000 tonnes, and Trump's statement puts the US market first. The 6.36-lira rise at the pump shows the constraint is still in physical supply. Price relief depends on the second tranche in November and on refinery repairs.

Likely effects

Turkish diesel priceNegativeWeeks
At 96.55 lira in Istanbul, diesel is close to the 100-lira mark; until Russian cargoes return to the Mediterranean, import costs are set by Indian and US cargoes.
Inflation and transportNegativeWeeks
Diesel is a core input for logistics and farm costs; the October increase will feed into the transport component of October CPI.
Russia–US energy bargainUncertain1–6 months
Diesel exports are now tied directly to the Trump–Putin bargain; flow volumes depend on the political calendar and on strikes against Russian refineries.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Phased reopening55%
Russia moves to a second tranche in November, the Mediterranean diesel premium eases and Turkish pump prices stay below 100 lira.
Watch: A Russian government decision on the second tranche in early November and Kpler data on Russian diesel arriving in Türkiye
2
Priority stays with the US30%
Russian cargoes go mainly to the US and the Atlantic, Türkiye remains dependent on Indian and US diesel, and diesel tops 100 lira.
Watch: Diesel on Istanbul's European side exceeding 100 lira
3
Ban returns15%
New strikes on Russian refineries squeeze domestic supply and Moscow halts exports again.
Watch: A new export ban decision from the Russian government

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Diesel, Istanbul European side (10 Oct)▼ 96.55 lira
Diesel price rise▼ +6.36 lira
Russian diesel cleared (stage 1)▲ 500,000 t