MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security23 October 2026, Friday
Carney says Canada has a good chance in Sinop nuclear race
Canadian Prime Minister Carney said in Istanbul on 23 October that AtkinsRéalis is in the running for Türkiye's next nuclear power plant. The company is carrying out a feasibility study for CANDU reactors at Sinop, with a decision expected by year-end or by COP31 on 9–20 November.
Carney said Canada's chances had been very slim a year ago but were now good, while acknowledging that the competition is real. According to Daily Sabah, Ankara has also held talks on the same plant with South Korea, Russia, China and Japan. AtkinsRéalis chief executive Ian Edwards announced that the company would conduct a feasibility study for building CANDU reactors at Sinop on the Black Sea coast. CANDU is a Canadian-designed pressurised heavy-water reactor that can run on natural uranium.
Sources differ on the order of the sites. Daily Sabah describes Sinop as the second planned plant and Thrace as the third, but does not make clear which site AtkinsRéalis is bidding for. CP24 writes that the company has offered CANDU for both planned plants. Neither source gives capacity, cost or the number of reactors, so those figures could not be verified.
The visit forms part of a strategic partnership announced on 22 October. The two sides agreed to widen cooperation in LNG, civil nuclear power and renewables, and Türk Eximbank signed a memorandum with Export Development Canada on joint projects in third markets. According to CP24, Canada's nuclear strategy aims to enter at least 4 new international markets by 2040. Türkiye's first plant, Akkuyu, is being built by Rosatom under a 20-billion-dollar agreement signed in 2010, and Rosatom expects first start-up at the end of the year.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The Sinop decision is about balancing Türkiye's reliance on Russia for nuclear capacity. With Rosatom building Akkuyu under a 20-billion-dollar agreement, a Western or Asian supplier at the second site has strategic appeal. Canada's odds have improved, but four rivals remain at the table and financing terms have not been disclosed.
Likely effects
- Türkiye energy supplyPositive6 months+
A decision around COP31 would start a nuclear investment timeline spanning years and could reduce dependence on imported gas over time.
- Russian nuclear influenceUncertain6 months+
If a supplier other than Rosatom is chosen for Sinop, Russia's monopoly in Türkiye's nuclear chain stays confined to Akkuyu.
- Türkiye–Canada tradePositive1–6 months
The Eximbank memorandum and a free trade round due to start in November tie the nuclear bid to a broader economic package.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Decision slips to 202750%
Ankara announces no choice by year-end and financing talks continue.
Watch: Whether the energy ministry makes a Sinop announcement during COP31
- 2Canada emerges as front-runner30%
Ankara announces exclusive negotiations or a preliminary agreement for CANDU.
Watch: An exclusivity announcement between Türkiye Nükleer Enerji AŞ and AtkinsRéalis
- 3An Asian rival is chosen20%
Korea, China or Japan pulls ahead with a financing package.
Watch: A signing on Sinop during Korean or Chinese government visits
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Akkuyu agreement (2010)▲ $20bn
- Canada nuclear market goal▲ 4+ by 2040