MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt3 October 2026, Saturday · 10:00 TRT (UTC+3)
Türkiye's September exports hit $26 billion, a record for the month
September exports rose 15.4% year on year to $26 billion, according to flash data released by the Ministry of Trade on 3 October. Imports rose 5.9% to $31.2 billion, narrowing the monthly trade deficit to $5.2 billion.
According to the ministry, exports for January–September rose 5.2% to $211 billion. Annualised goods exports reached a record $283.7 billion, passing the Medium-Term Programme's 2026 target of $282 billion 3 months early. According to AA, September was the second-highest single month for exports after December 2025, which reached $26.3 billion. Export cover of imports rose to 83.2% in September; according to Anka, that is the highest in 14 months.
The deficit side looks weaker. Imports for January–September reached $282 billion and the 9-month trade deficit $71 billion. At $96 billion, the annualised deficit has overtaken the $92.2 billion recorded at the end of 2025. Minister Bolat said on 3 October that the deficit had been contained despite higher energy costs; the flash data did not break out September's energy import bill.
The source of the increase is open to debate. According to TİM, exports to Switzerland jumped 599% in September and exports to the US rose 42.5%. The flash data did not show which product group drove the Swiss surge, and this could not be verified. According to Anka, annualised exports of medium-high and high-technology goods rose to $117.6 billion, making up 43.7% of 9-month exports.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The monthly deficit's fall to $5.2 billion in September gives brief respite from the foreign-currency demand that strains reserves. The annualised deficit, however, remains above its end-2025 level at $96 billion, and one good month does not change the structural picture. Because the source of the 599% jump in exports to Switzerland has not been disclosed, it is unclear how much of the export gain will last.
Likely effects
- Current account and reservesPositiveWeeks
The September deficit's fall to $5.2 billion may support the impression of slower FX outflows in reserve and current account data due in early October.
- External financing needsNegative1–6 months
While the $96 billion annualised deficit stays above end-2025 levels, Türkiye's external financing needs remain high, and one month's improvement does not offset that.
- Exporting sectorsPositive1–6 months
The 43.7% share of medium-high and high-technology goods in 9-month exports suggests part of the export gain does not rest on one-off items.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Deficit stays high but stable55%
The monthly deficit moves in a $5–7 billion range and the annualised deficit holds flat around $96 billion.
Watch: TÜİK's final September trade data at the end of October, and the energy import line
- 2Energy bill widens the gap again30%
As energy imports rise, the October deficit widens again and September's improvement proves a one-month event.
Watch: Imports rising more than 10% in the October flash data
- 3Export momentum holds15%
Export growth stays above 10% in October and the annualised deficit starts to narrow.
Watch: Export cover staying above 80% in the October flash data due in early November
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- September exports (y/y)▲ +15.4%
- September trade deficit▲ $5.2 billion
- Annualised deficit▼ $96 billion